• subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: gold
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-GOLD-STALE-001
  • generated_at: 2026-04-03 00:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures are in a low-clarity, risk-premium-sensitive regime where geopolitical/trade-friction narratives could add upside skew, but current actionable evidence inside the last 72h is insufficient. 54 mixed fading 24h false 82
gold B-GOLD-002 Gold trade/traceability disruption headlines (Ghana/UAE/India corridor themes) may create localised premiums and intermittent liquidity/flow noise, but the signal is single-source/low-diversity and stale for immediate directional inference. 51 mixed fading 6h false 82 
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures are in a low-clarity, risk-premium-sensitive regime where geopolitical/trade-friction narratives could add upside skew, but current actionable evidence inside the last 72h is insufficient.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk",
 "physical_gold_demand",
 "etf_investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No fresh (<=72h) corroboration in admitted gold-mapped evidence set"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold trade/traceability disruption headlines (Ghana/UAE/India corridor themes) may create localised premiums and intermittent liquidity/flow noise, but the signal is single-source/low-diversity and stale for immediate directional inference.",
 "probability_pct": 51,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "physical_gold_demand",
 "central_bank_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Single-source concentration and low authority tier mix for the specific traceability disruption claim"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 24,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "invalidated_stale",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 26,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-001",
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 1
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 3,
 "fresh_evidence_count_24h": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count_72h": 0,
 "newest_admitted_evidence_utc": "2026-03-09T05:56:54Z"
 },
 "regime_state": "unstable"
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-GOLD-STALE-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "high",
 "summary": "Most gold-mapped signals are older than 72 hours (latest admitted: 2026-03-09), so directional inference is stale-suppressed."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-GOLD-SPARSE-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "type": "data_sparsity_recent_window",
 "severity": "high",
 "summary": "No admitted gold-mapped evidence falls inside the last 24 hours; near-term momentum/inflection detection is degraded."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-GOLD-WHIPSAW-003",
 "market": "gold",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "summary": "Signals are dominated by isolated, low-diversity items (singleton VIPs) and non-gold-mapped geopolitics, increasing headline-driven noise risk."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral until >=3 independent gold-mapped records appear within 72h AND directional_mass_score_0_100 rises above 45."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility_watch if a fresh (<=6h) Tier-A gold-specific catalyst lands (e.g., USD/real-rates shock, official central-bank flow disclosure, or confirmed trade-disruption affecting deliverability)."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposite-direction cluster (>=2 independent records <=2h) appears against the next emerging directional bias, treat as late-breaking invalidation risk."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
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 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as gold.",
 "All gold-mapped admitted items are stale (>72h) relative to snapshot (latest admitted: 2026-03-09T05:56:54Z).",
 "Majority of provided trends are geopolitical and do not map confidently to gold via alias rules; they were not force-mapped (unmapped_signal_count_high).",
 "User preference respected: suppress direction when degraded; output set to neutral_mixed with high fragility."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}