Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-03T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B1 |
Energy-transition / electrification / grid-modernisation narratives remain a net demand-supportive impulse for copper into the next 24h window. |
66 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
44 |
| copper |
B2 |
Supply-side / producer and sector positioning narratives (miners, market commentary) are skewed toward tighter copper balance risk (supportive for price). |
62 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
44 |
| copper |
B3 |
Trade-policy and geopolitical headlines are a volatility amplifier for copper; net directional impact remains positive but with headline-driven whipsaw risk. |
58 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260403-copper-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Energy-transition / electrification / grid-modernisation narratives remain a net demand-supportive impulse for copper into the next 24h window.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"inventory_exchange_stocks",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Near-term futures pricing may decouple from thematic demand narratives without direct inventory/flow/price-action confirmation."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-side / producer and sector positioning narratives (miners, market commentary) are skewed toward tighter copper balance risk (supportive for price).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No explicit fresh counter-supply shock negation was provided, but absence of direct stock-change data increases model fragility."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy and geopolitical headlines are a volatility amplifier for copper; net directional impact remains positive but with headline-driven whipsaw risk.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If policy headlines shift toward growth-negative constraints (fresh, multi-source), bullish bias could fade quickly."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 96,
"B": 11,
"C": 2,
"D": 187,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 4,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 6,
"fresh_24_72h_signals": 2,
"stale_over_72h_signals": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Trade-policy and macro narratives are active; direction is bullish but can swing on incremental headlines."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Signal-set is narrative-heavy with limited direct inventory/flow/price-action confirmation in the admitted objects."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh pro-demand coverage persists with low contradiction and no multi-source bearish macro shock emerges in the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy / China-policy headlines cluster in a short window (contradiction ratio rises materially)."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent opposing signals arrive within <=2h (late-breaking invalidation conditions)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradictions were supplied in admitted trend objects; contradiction_ratio held at ~0.",
"State-change computed with unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided); emitted as unchanged.",
"Source tier counts are summed from admitted trend metadata and may be non-deduplicated across overlapping evidence records."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}