Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-03T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Energy-transition / electrification / grid-modernisation narratives remain a net demand-supportive impulse for copper into the next 24h window. 66 up accelerating 24h false 44
copper B2 Supply-side / producer and sector positioning narratives (miners, market commentary) are skewed toward tighter copper balance risk (supportive for price). 62 up stable 6h false 44
copper B3 Trade-policy and geopolitical headlines are a volatility amplifier for copper; net directional impact remains positive but with headline-driven whipsaw risk. 58 mixed accelerating 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-20260403-copper-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Energy-transition / electrification / grid-modernisation narratives remain a net demand-supportive impulse for copper into the next 24h window.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Near-term futures pricing may decouple from thematic demand narratives without direct inventory/flow/price-action confirmation."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side / producer and sector positioning narratives (miners, market commentary) are skewed toward tighter copper balance risk (supportive for price).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No explicit fresh counter-supply shock negation was provided, but absence of direct stock-change data increases model fragility."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy and geopolitical headlines are a volatility amplifier for copper; net directional impact remains positive but with headline-driven whipsaw risk.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If policy headlines shift toward growth-negative constraints (fresh, multi-source), bullish bias could fade quickly."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 96,
 "B": 11,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 187,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals": 4,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals": 6,
 "fresh_24_72h_signals": 2,
 "stale_over_72h_signals": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy and macro narratives are active; direction is bullish but can swing on incremental headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Signal-set is narrative-heavy with limited direct inventory/flow/price-action confirmation in the admitted objects."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh pro-demand coverage persists with low contradiction and no multi-source bearish macro shock emerges in the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy / China-policy headlines cluster in a short window (contradiction ratio rises materially)."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent opposing signals arrive within <=2h (late-breaking invalidation conditions)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32.0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31.5,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradictions were supplied in admitted trend objects; contradiction_ratio held at ~0.",
 "State-change computed with unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided); emitted as unchanged.",
 "Source tier counts are summed from admitted trend metadata and may be non-deduplicated across overlapping evidence records."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}