Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: trade_policy_volatility_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-03T05:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-CU-001 Near-term copper futures bias is upward as fresh, broad energy-transition + grid/renewables deployment narratives reinforce demand expectations. 62 up accelerating 6h false 46
copper B-CU-002 Over the next 24 hours, the dominant signal remains supportive (bullish-leaning) but is vulnerable to trade-policy headline volatility. 58 up stable 24h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_copper_20260403T050000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper futures bias is upward as fresh, broad energy-transition + grid/renewables deployment narratives reinforce demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks (not directly evidenced in admitted set; treated as unconfirmed driver)",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the dominant signal remains supportive (bullish-leaning) but is vulnerable to trade-policy headline volatility.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy (weakly evidenced via singleton VIP signal; treated as low-weight)",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "VIP-002 (single-source negative trade/supply-chain caution; low corroboration)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CU-001",
 "B-CU-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 95,
 "B": 11,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 188,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals": 4,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals": 3,
 "stale_24_72h_signals": 1,
 "stale_gt_72h_signals": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "trade_policy_volatility_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy related trend mass is high; while not strong counter-evidence, it elevates whipsaw/reversal risk on new headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_heavy_signal_mix",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Many admitted signals are thematic demand narratives (energy transition / grid build) rather than direct price/inventory shocks."
 },
 {
 "flag": "singleton_negative_outliers_present",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "At least one single-source negative VIP outlier exists; not sufficient to flip direction but increases monitoring priority."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with fresh evidence dominance (0\u201324h) and no contradiction spike."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Trade-policy headline intensity increases and contradiction ratio rises above ~0.25 in the next cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear or an official/structural invalidator emerges."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.",
 "Timeseries bucket values are conservative and derived from admitted-signal recency/shape metadata plus limited per-signal timestamp samples; not a price series."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}