Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: indirect_price_link
  • generated_at: 2026-04-03 07:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term coffee price pressure is biased upward as retail/restaurant expansion signals reinforce demand expectations. 60 up stable 24h false 45
coffee B-coffee-002 Crop health/disease risk remains an upside tail-risk factor for coffee prices (supply risk premium). 56 up stable 24h false 45
coffee B-coffee-003 Operational/labour-rights and sustainability-linked compliance signals at large buyers/retailers can tighten effective supply and add cost/friction, modestly supporting prices. 53 up fading 24h false 45

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260403T070000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee price pressure is biased upward as retail/restaurant expansion signals reinforce demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Retail expansion in coffee retail and specialty coffee shops (demand-side expansion proxy)",
 "Growth/expansion signals from restaurant chains (consumption trend proxy)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Crop health/disease risk remains an upside tail-risk factor for coffee prices (supply risk premium).",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Coffee plant health risk signal (Fusarium coffeibaccae) as a supply-risk proxy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Operational/labour-rights and sustainability-linked compliance signals at large buyers/retailers can tighten effective supply and add cost/friction, modestly supporting prices.",
 "probability_pct": 53,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Labour-rights / compliance headlines in major coffee retail ecosystem (second-order supply-chain friction proxy)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 37,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 93,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h": 2,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 0
 },
 "directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 32,
 "regime_state": "loosening"
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "indirect_price_link",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Most admitted signals are demand/supply-risk proxies (retail expansion, crop health, compliance/labour) rather than direct coffee-futures positioning/price drivers; conviction is capped accordingly."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "momentum_fade_after_peak",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Signal timeseries shows a bullish peak around 2026-04-03T04:00Z followed by cooling; reversal risk is raised to medium."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "unmapped_macro_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Broader logistics/geopolitical/fuel themes exist in the corpus but are not confidently coffee-mapped under alias rules; potential omitted cross-commodity impact."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional fresh (<=6h) confirmations of coffee-specific supply tightness (crop health/weather/origin supply) OR continued demand-side expansion headlines without fresh counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Any abrupt, high-authority update on crop disease/weather disruptions, or sudden supply-chain constraint news that directly references coffee/arabica/robusta."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh opposing evidence (<=24h) indicating demand destruction or supply relief sufficient to push net directional score below +20 or contradiction materially higher."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If coffee-mapped evidence flow drops below threshold (min 3) or becomes dominated by stale (>72h) items without fresh confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "velocity_score": 16,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "velocity_score": -14,
 "acceleration_score": -30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "velocity_score": -17,
 "acceleration_score": -35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 30,
 "acceleration_score": 30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -25,
 "acceleration_score": -55,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 23,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 25,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 4,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Admitted signals were constrained to coffee-mappable items (coffee retail/consumption themes + coffee plant health risk).",
 "No explicit counterevidence records were provided in the admitted set; reversal risk is primarily from momentum fade rather than contradiction mass.",
 "Some broader macro/logistics trends were present but not coffee-mapped under alias rules; logged as unmapped context rather than forced mapping."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}