Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: indirect_price_link
- generated_at: 2026-04-03 07:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Near-term coffee price pressure is biased upward as retail/restaurant expansion signals reinforce demand expectations. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
45 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Crop health/disease risk remains an upside tail-risk factor for coffee prices (supply risk premium). |
56 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
45 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Operational/labour-rights and sustainability-linked compliance signals at large buyers/retailers can tighten effective supply and add cost/friction, modestly supporting prices. |
53 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
45 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260403T070000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee price pressure is biased upward as retail/restaurant expansion signals reinforce demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Retail expansion in coffee retail and specialty coffee shops (demand-side expansion proxy)",
"Growth/expansion signals from restaurant chains (consumption trend proxy)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 65,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Crop health/disease risk remains an upside tail-risk factor for coffee prices (supply risk premium).",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Coffee plant health risk signal (Fusarium coffeibaccae) as a supply-risk proxy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Operational/labour-rights and sustainability-linked compliance signals at large buyers/retailers can tighten effective supply and add cost/friction, modestly supporting prices.",
"probability_pct": 53,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Labour-rights / compliance headlines in major coffee retail ecosystem (second-order supply-chain friction proxy)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 37,
"B": 3,
"C": 6,
"D": 93,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 2,
"fresh_6_24h": 2,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_over_72h": 0
},
"directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 32,
"regime_state": "loosening"
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "indirect_price_link",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Most admitted signals are demand/supply-risk proxies (retail expansion, crop health, compliance/labour) rather than direct coffee-futures positioning/price drivers; conviction is capped accordingly."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "momentum_fade_after_peak",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Signal timeseries shows a bullish peak around 2026-04-03T04:00Z followed by cooling; reversal risk is raised to medium."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "unmapped_macro_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Broader logistics/geopolitical/fuel themes exist in the corpus but are not confidently coffee-mapped under alias rules; potential omitted cross-commodity impact."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Additional fresh (<=6h) confirmations of coffee-specific supply tightness (crop health/weather/origin supply) OR continued demand-side expansion headlines without fresh counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Any abrupt, high-authority update on crop disease/weather disruptions, or sudden supply-chain constraint news that directly references coffee/arabica/robusta."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh opposing evidence (<=24h) indicating demand destruction or supply relief sufficient to push net directional score below +20 or contradiction materially higher."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If coffee-mapped evidence flow drops below threshold (min 3) or becomes dominated by stale (>72h) items without fresh confirmation."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 16,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -14,
"acceleration_score": -30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 32,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -17,
"acceleration_score": -35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 30,
"acceleration_score": 30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -55,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 23,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 25,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 4,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Admitted signals were constrained to coffee-mappable items (coffee retail/consumption themes + coffee plant health risk).",
"No explicit counterevidence records were provided in the admitted set; reversal risk is primarily from momentum fade rather than contradiction mass.",
"Some broader macro/logistics trends were present but not coffee-mapped under alias rules; logged as unmapped context rather than forced mapping."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}