Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: inference_heavy_drivers (severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-03T14:13:30Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-24h-001 Near-term upward pressure on coffee futures is more likely than not, driven by (a) origin supply sensitivity to climate/weather narratives and (b) demand-supportive retail/specialty coffee expansion signals, with limited fresh opposing evidence in the admitted corpus. 62 up stable 24h false 45
coffee B-coffee-6h-001 In the next 6 hours, bullish pressure on coffee futures is modestly more likely than bearish pressure, but with medium fragility due to inference-heavy drivers (macro narratives vs direct, discrete crop-shock datapoints). 58 up accelerating 6h false 45

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260403T141330Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T14:13:30Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term upward pressure on coffee futures is more likely than not, driven by (a) origin supply sensitivity to climate/weather narratives and (b) demand-supportive retail/specialty coffee expansion signals, with limited fresh opposing evidence in the admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather_disruptions",
 "crop_conditions_disease",
 "origin_supply",
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-6h-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "In the next 6 hours, bullish pressure on coffee futures is modestly more likely than bearish pressure, but with medium fragility due to inference-heavy drivers (macro narratives vs direct, discrete crop-shock datapoints).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "labour_costs",
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-24h-001",
 "B-coffee-6h-001"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 45,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 8,
 "D": 97,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h": 2,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "inference_heavy_drivers",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Most admitted drivers are narrative/structural (climate + retail expansion + labour) rather than a single hard, time-stamped crop-shock datapoint; increases fragility without constituting counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "vip_lane_echo_risk_background",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "At least one coffee-specific VIP outlier is single-source; treated as background only (no directional override)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with freshness_confidence != low and no late-breaking opposing cluster appears within a 2h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.25 or fresh opposing evidence appears across 2+ independent sources inside 2 hours (kill-switch sentinel)."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "A material, fresh bearish driver cluster (e.g., supply relief / demand shock) emerges and accelerates for >= 2 consecutive buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T07:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T08:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T08:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T09:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T09:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T10:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T10:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T11:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T11:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T12:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:13:30Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:13:30Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 5,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'coffee'; single-market scope enforced.",
 "No explicit per-trend v2 physics/trend_state_memory fields available in input; used conservative fallback synthesis from metadata (authority tiers, source diversity, recency proxies).",
 "Several non-coffee macro/logistics trends were not force-mapped to coffee due to low-confidence alias matching (unmapped signals suppressed).",
 "Prior state not provided; state_change emitted as 'new_bullish' under unknown_prior fallback."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}