Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: inference_heavy_drivers (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-03T14:13:30Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-24h-001 |
Near-term upward pressure on coffee futures is more likely than not, driven by (a) origin supply sensitivity to climate/weather narratives and (b) demand-supportive retail/specialty coffee expansion signals, with limited fresh opposing evidence in the admitted corpus. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
45 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-6h-001 |
In the next 6 hours, bullish pressure on coffee futures is modestly more likely than bearish pressure, but with medium fragility due to inference-heavy drivers (macro narratives vs direct, discrete crop-shock datapoints). |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
45 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-20260403T141330Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T14:13:30Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term upward pressure on coffee futures is more likely than not, driven by (a) origin supply sensitivity to climate/weather narratives and (b) demand-supportive retail/specialty coffee expansion signals, with limited fresh opposing evidence in the admitted corpus.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"weather_disruptions",
"crop_conditions_disease",
"origin_supply",
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-6h-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "In the next 6 hours, bullish pressure on coffee futures is modestly more likely than bearish pressure, but with medium fragility due to inference-heavy drivers (macro narratives vs direct, discrete crop-shock datapoints).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"labour_costs",
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-24h-001",
"B-coffee-6h-001"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 45,
"B": 0,
"C": 8,
"D": 97,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 3,
"fresh_6_24h": 2,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "inference_heavy_drivers",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Most admitted drivers are narrative/structural (climate + retail expansion + labour) rather than a single hard, time-stamped crop-shock datapoint; increases fragility without constituting counterevidence."
},
{
"flag": "vip_lane_echo_risk_background",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "At least one coffee-specific VIP outlier is single-source; treated as background only (no directional override)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with freshness_confidence != low and no late-breaking opposing cluster appears within a 2h window."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.25 or fresh opposing evidence appears across 2+ independent sources inside 2 hours (kill-switch sentinel)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "A material, fresh bearish driver cluster (e.g., supply relief / demand shock) emerges and accelerates for >= 2 consecutive buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T07:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T08:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T08:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T09:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T09:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T10:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T10:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T11:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T11:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T12:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:13:30Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:13:30Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 5,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'coffee'; single-market scope enforced.",
"No explicit per-trend v2 physics/trend_state_memory fields available in input; used conservative fallback synthesis from metadata (authority tiers, source diversity, recency proxies).",
"Several non-coffee macro/logistics trends were not force-mapped to coffee due to low-confidence alias matching (unmapped signals suppressed).",
"Prior state not provided; state_change emitted as 'new_bullish' under unknown_prior fallback."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}