Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-04-03T15:02:54Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-CRUDE-001 | Geopolitical escalation / Gulf maritime-chokepoint risk is applying near-term upside pressure to Brent/WTI (risk premium expansion). | 64 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| crude_oil | B-CRUDE-002 | OPEC+/producer-policy and regional security developments are sustaining an upside bias over the next 24 hours, though marginal upside is sensitive to de-escalation headlines. | 59 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| crude_oil | B-CRUDE-003 | Macro headwinds (USD strength/FX framing and demand-slowdown risk) are acting as counter-pressure, limiting follow-through and raising chop/reversal risk if de-escalation prints. | 46 | down | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260403T150254Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T15:02:54Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation / Gulf maritime-chokepoint risk is applying near-term upside pressure to Brent/WTI (risk premium expansion).",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Strait of Hormuz / maritime chokepoints focus",
"Iran / Saudi security-incident narrative density",
"Broad multi-source coverage with high recency concentration"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CRUDE-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "OPEC+/producer-policy and regional security developments are sustaining an upside bias over the next 24 hours, though marginal upside is sensitive to de-escalation headlines.",
"probability_pct": 59,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"OPEC+ policy / geopolitics linkage",
"Producer-region incident flow (Saudi / Iran-related)",
"Shipping-route risk and supply-disruption framing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CRUDE-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro headwinds (USD strength/FX framing and demand-slowdown risk) are acting as counter-pressure, limiting follow-through and raising chop/reversal risk if de-escalation prints.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"USD/financial-conditions narrative overlap with Brent",
"Demand-risk signalling (thin but present)",
"Mixed macro-policy linkage in the corpus"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CRUDE-001",
"B-CRUDE-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CRUDE-001",
"B-CRUDE-002",
"B-CRUDE-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 120,
"B": 0,
"C": 1,
"D": 130,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 0.62,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 0.34,
"stale_over_24h_est": 0.04,
"notes": "Estimated from trend/vip published windows; evidence IDs overlap across trends so tier counts are not additive sums of all bundles."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "event_driven_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional bias is driven by geopolitics/shipping-risk headlines; price response may gap on de-escalation/escalation prints."
},
{
"flag": "counterpressure_macro",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "USD/financial-conditions and demand-risk narratives provide meaningful counter-evidence, limiting conviction despite strong geopolitical mass."
},
{
"flag": "vip_single_source_noise",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treated as weak, fragility-increasing context rather than core directional evidence."
},
{
"flag": "prior_state_unavailable",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "No trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided; state_change computed with unknown_prior fallback."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional independent reports reinforce Gulf/Hormuz disruption risk in the next 6 hours without offsetting macro/demand negatives, maintain long-bias watch."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If mixed headlines persist (escalation + de-escalation), expect elevated volatility; monitor for whipsaw conditions."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh de-escalation or demand-weakness evidence accelerates within a 2\u20136 hour window, shift to reversal-watch."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory fields present; used evidence recency proxies, velocity_hint, and source-tier mix to approximate mass/momentum.",
"Most admitted evidence is geopolitics/shipping risk; interpreted as oil price-risk-premium supportive (upside) rather than purely 'news sentiment'.",
"State_change uses unknown_prior fallback (no prior state provided)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}