Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-04-03T15:02:54Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CRUDE-001 Geopolitical escalation / Gulf maritime-chokepoint risk is applying near-term upside pressure to Brent/WTI (risk premium expansion). 64 up accelerating 6h false 58
crude_oil B-CRUDE-002 OPEC+/producer-policy and regional security developments are sustaining an upside bias over the next 24 hours, though marginal upside is sensitive to de-escalation headlines. 59 up stable 24h false 58
crude_oil B-CRUDE-003 Macro headwinds (USD strength/FX framing and demand-slowdown risk) are acting as counter-pressure, limiting follow-through and raising chop/reversal risk if de-escalation prints. 46 down stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260403T150254Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T15:02:54Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CRUDE-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical escalation / Gulf maritime-chokepoint risk is applying near-term upside pressure to Brent/WTI (risk premium expansion).",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Strait of Hormuz / maritime chokepoints focus",
 "Iran / Saudi security-incident narrative density",
 "Broad multi-source coverage with high recency concentration"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CRUDE-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CRUDE-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "OPEC+/producer-policy and regional security developments are sustaining an upside bias over the next 24 hours, though marginal upside is sensitive to de-escalation headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 59,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "OPEC+ policy / geopolitics linkage",
 "Producer-region incident flow (Saudi / Iran-related)",
 "Shipping-route risk and supply-disruption framing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CRUDE-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CRUDE-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro headwinds (USD strength/FX framing and demand-slowdown risk) are acting as counter-pressure, limiting follow-through and raising chop/reversal risk if de-escalation prints.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "USD/financial-conditions narrative overlap with Brent",
 "Demand-risk signalling (thin but present)",
 "Mixed macro-policy linkage in the corpus"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CRUDE-001",
 "B-CRUDE-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CRUDE-001",
 "B-CRUDE-002",
 "B-CRUDE-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 120,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 130,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 0.62,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 0.34,
 "stale_over_24h_est": 0.04,
 "notes": "Estimated from trend/vip published windows; evidence IDs overlap across trends so tier counts are not additive sums of all bundles."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional bias is driven by geopolitics/shipping-risk headlines; price response may gap on de-escalation/escalation prints."
 },
 {
 "flag": "counterpressure_macro",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "USD/financial-conditions and demand-risk narratives provide meaningful counter-evidence, limiting conviction despite strong geopolitical mass."
 },
 {
 "flag": "vip_single_source_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source; treated as weak, fragility-increasing context rather than core directional evidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "prior_state_unavailable",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "No trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided; state_change computed with unknown_prior fallback."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional independent reports reinforce Gulf/Hormuz disruption risk in the next 6 hours without offsetting macro/demand negatives, maintain long-bias watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If mixed headlines persist (escalation + de-escalation), expect elevated volatility; monitor for whipsaw conditions."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh de-escalation or demand-weakness evidence accelerates within a 2\u20136 hour window, shift to reversal-watch."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory fields present; used evidence recency proxies, velocity_hint, and source-tier mix to approximate mass/momentum.",
 "Most admitted evidence is geopolitics/shipping risk; interpreted as oil price-risk-premium supportive (upside) rather than purely 'news sentiment'.",
 "State_change uses unknown_prior fallback (no prior state provided)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}