Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_geopolitical_dependency
  • generated_at: 2026-04-03T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1 Middle East geopolitical escalation and maritime/security incident clustering is increasing perceived crude supply-disruption risk and sustaining a near-term risk premium for Brent. 66 up accelerating 6h false 62
crude_oil B2 Macro/demand-side concerns (growth sensitivity, oil-demand caution signals) and USD-linked tightening narratives are a meaningful counterweight that can cap rallies in Brent over the next 24 hours. 46 down stable 24h false 62
crude_oil B3 Net oil-market messaging is not yet presenting strong, fresh, explicit de-escalation evidence; therefore the dominant near-term posture remains risk-premium supportive but fragile and headline-driven. 58 mixed accelerating 6h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260403T070000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Middle East geopolitical escalation and maritime/security incident clustering is increasing perceived crude supply-disruption risk and sustaining a near-term risk premium for Brent.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical escalation / conflict headlines (Iran/Israel/US-linked)",
 "Maritime chokepoint and security-incident narratives (Gulf / shipping routes)",
 "Refining/fuel interruption framing in the news cycle"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B2"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 82,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro/demand-side concerns (growth sensitivity, oil-demand caution signals) and USD-linked tightening narratives are a meaningful counterweight that can cap rallies in Brent over the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Oil demand caution / slowdown risk framing",
 "USD and macro policy uncertainty spillover"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Net oil-market messaging is not yet presenting strong, fresh, explicit de-escalation evidence; therefore the dominant near-term posture remains risk-premium supportive but fragile and headline-driven.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Low explicit counterevidence in admitted set",
 "High recency concentration of risk headlines"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 12,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 6,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 9,
 "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 8,
 "stale_gt_24h_signal_count": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_geopolitical_dependency",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is driven primarily by fast-moving geopolitics/security narratives; de-escalation headlines can reverse premium quickly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "macro_counterweight_present",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Demand/macro and USD-linked narratives exist as fresh counterpressure, limiting conviction despite strong risk-premium mass."
 },
 {
 "flag": "prior_state_unavailable",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "No prior state memory provided to compute a definitive state transition; state_change left as unchanged."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh 0\u20136h geopolitical/maritime risk signals persist without material de-escalation headlines, keep bullish-bias watch active."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent de-escalation/ceasefire/diplomatic resolution signals appear within 2 hours OR contradiction ratio rises materially, treat as potential bullish-to-neutral transition."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains rapid (multiple Tier-A updates per hour) with mixed macro overlays, expect intraday volatility regime."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional mass weakens (fresh evidence count drops sharply for 3+ hours) while macro counterpressure increases, prefer neutral monitoring stance."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 {
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 {
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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 "resolution": "30m",
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 "buckets": [
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 {
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 {
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 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 75,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 75,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 82,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 82,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 85,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 85,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 85,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "Contradictions array was empty in provided 5B payload; counterevidence estimated from macro/demand-themed admitted signals rather than explicit contradiction records.",
 "No prior market state memory provided; state_change set to unchanged to avoid asserting a transition."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}