Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_geopolitical_dependency
- generated_at: 2026-04-03T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B1 |
Middle East geopolitical escalation and maritime/security incident clustering is increasing perceived crude supply-disruption risk and sustaining a near-term risk premium for Brent. |
66 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
62 |
| crude_oil |
B2 |
Macro/demand-side concerns (growth sensitivity, oil-demand caution signals) and USD-linked tightening narratives are a meaningful counterweight that can cap rallies in Brent over the next 24 hours. |
46 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
| crude_oil |
B3 |
Net oil-market messaging is not yet presenting strong, fresh, explicit de-escalation evidence; therefore the dominant near-term posture remains risk-premium supportive but fragile and headline-driven. |
58 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260403T070000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Middle East geopolitical escalation and maritime/security incident clustering is increasing perceived crude supply-disruption risk and sustaining a near-term risk premium for Brent.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical escalation / conflict headlines (Iran/Israel/US-linked)",
"Maritime chokepoint and security-incident narratives (Gulf / shipping routes)",
"Refining/fuel interruption framing in the news cycle"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 82,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro/demand-side concerns (growth sensitivity, oil-demand caution signals) and USD-linked tightening narratives are a meaningful counterweight that can cap rallies in Brent over the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Oil demand caution / slowdown risk framing",
"USD and macro policy uncertainty spillover"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Net oil-market messaging is not yet presenting strong, fresh, explicit de-escalation evidence; therefore the dominant near-term posture remains risk-premium supportive but fragile and headline-driven.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Low explicit counterevidence in admitted set",
"High recency concentration of risk headlines"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 12,
"B": 1,
"C": 0,
"D": 6,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 9,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 8,
"stale_gt_24h_signal_count": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_geopolitical_dependency",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is driven primarily by fast-moving geopolitics/security narratives; de-escalation headlines can reverse premium quickly."
},
{
"flag": "macro_counterweight_present",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Demand/macro and USD-linked narratives exist as fresh counterpressure, limiting conviction despite strong risk-premium mass."
},
{
"flag": "prior_state_unavailable",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "No prior state memory provided to compute a definitive state transition; state_change left as unchanged."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh 0\u20136h geopolitical/maritime risk signals persist without material de-escalation headlines, keep bullish-bias watch active."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent de-escalation/ceasefire/diplomatic resolution signals appear within 2 hours OR contradiction ratio rises materially, treat as potential bullish-to-neutral transition."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains rapid (multiple Tier-A updates per hour) with mixed macro overlays, expect intraday volatility regime."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If directional mass weakens (fresh evidence count drops sharply for 3+ hours) while macro counterpressure increases, prefer neutral monitoring stance."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
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{
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}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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"resolution": "30m",
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"buckets": [
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{
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 75,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 75,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 82,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 82,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 85,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 85,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 85,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"Contradictions array was empty in provided 5B payload; counterevidence estimated from macro/demand-themed admitted signals rather than explicit contradiction records.",
"No prior market state memory provided; state_change set to unchanged to avoid asserting a transition."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}