Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-02T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-INVFLOWS-24H-01 |
Recent silver-linked ETF / trust flow narratives (e.g., SLV/PSLV coverage) are net supportive for silver over the next 24h. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
48 |
| silver |
B-SI-INDDEM-24H-01 |
Industrial demand framing (solar manufacturing / supply-chain expansion narratives) is supportive for silver over the next 24h. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
48 |
| silver |
B-SI-RATES-6H-01 |
Near-term macro (rates/real-rates expectations) remains an active driver, but the corpus directionality is not explicit enough to rule out whipsaw within 6h. |
45 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260402T070000Z-silver",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-INVFLOWS-24H-01",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Recent silver-linked ETF / trust flow narratives (e.g., SLV/PSLV coverage) are net supportive for silver over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"investment_flows",
"risk_sentiment_safe_haven"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-INDDEM-24H-01",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Industrial demand framing (solar manufacturing / supply-chain expansion narratives) is supportive for silver over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-RATES-6H-01",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term macro (rates/real-rates expectations) remains an active driver, but the corpus directionality is not explicit enough to rule out whipsaw within 6h.",
"probability_pct": 45,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"real_rates",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-INVFLOWS-24H-01",
"B-SI-INDDEM-24H-01",
"B-SI-RATES-6H-01"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 0,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 0,
"U": 0,
"note": "Tier counts are not safely aggregatable at market-level from the provided 5B slice without double-counting across overlapping trend evidence bundles."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_window_hours": 24,
"fresh_evidence_present": true,
"stale_context_overhang": "low"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "macro_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A material portion of the admitted support is macro/rates-linked; fast repricing in rates/USD narratives can reverse silver intraday without requiring new metals-specific fundamentals."
},
{
"risk_flag": "mapping_indirection",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several high-volume trends are about macro/geopolitics/other assets; silver direction is inferred via driver linkage rather than explicit silver price claims."
},
{
"risk_flag": "data_overlap_double_counting_guard",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Trend evidence bundles overlap heavily (shared record IDs across trends); conviction is capped to avoid over-weighting duplicated coverage."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain watch_long_bias if the next 6h continues to show fresh investment-flow / industrial-demand confirmations without new opposing macro shocks.",
"action": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Set reversal_watch if fresh (<=2h) opposing macro/rates signals appear in 2+ independent sources and coincide with a contradiction spike in the corpus.",
"action": "reversal_watch"
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Enter volatility_watch if the corpus becomes mixed (directional_score_signed returns to near-zero) while fresh evidence count rises (headline churn without consensus).",
"action": "volatility_watch"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code = silver.",
"No explicit contradictory record IDs were provided in the admitted trend objects; counterevidence score is treated as low (absence of evidence is not evidence of absence).",
"Timeseries bucket values are conservative and derived from the presence of multiple 'fresh' evidence timestamps clustered in the last few hours across silver-linked trends; full per-record timestamp distribution was not available in the provided 5B slice."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}