- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-02T23:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Elevated LNG-supply disruption and Middle East geopolitical risk keeps an upside skew in natural gas futures over the next 6 hours. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
62 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Over the next 24 hours, the dominant news-driven impulse remains risk-premium supportive for natural gas (more upside than downside), but with whipsaw risk if de-escalation headlines arrive. |
59 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-natural_gas-2026-04-02T23:10:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-02T23:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Elevated LNG-supply disruption and Middle East geopolitical risk keeps an upside skew in natural gas futures over the next 6 hours.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"LNG supply disruption risk signals tied to Qatar / Ras Laffan",
"Geopolitical escalation risk (Iran / regional security) feeding risk-premium demand for gas/LNG"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the dominant news-driven impulse remains risk-premium supportive for natural gas (more upside than downside), but with whipsaw risk if de-escalation headlines arrive.",
"probability_pct": 59,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Persistent geopolitics-driven energy security narrative",
"Operational/outage chatter around LNG-linked infrastructure (Qatar complex; Australia LNG operations mentioned in corpus)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 20,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 26,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_window_dominant": "0-24h",
"stale_background_present": true,
"notes": "Counts are not de-duplicated across overlapping trend evidence bundles; used as a conservative authority/freshness mix proxy."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"details": "Geopolitical risk-premium narratives can reverse quickly on de-escalation/ceasefire headlines; keep reversal watch active."
},
{
"flag": "driver_concentration",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"details": "Current directional mass is heavily concentrated in geopolitics/supply-risk themes; limited explicit storage/weather/demand signals in admitted set."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"market": "natural_gas",
"details": "Some linked narratives originated >72h ago, though refreshed by new mentions; treat as background context rather than sole driver."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_nonprice_fundamentals",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"details": "Admitted corpus is thin on direct US storage, near-term weather, and pipeline flow fundamentals for this cycle."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional independent reports reinforce LNG-supply disruption risk or escalation risk within the next 6 hours without meaningful counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If headline flow intensifies around Middle East escalation/de-escalation or confirmed LNG facility/pipeline disruptions."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear indicating de-escalation, restored flows, or official statements negating disruption risk."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially (mixed fresh evidence) and conviction falls below 55."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope is single-market natural_gas (explicit).",
"Directional mapping treated supply-disruption / LNG-security risk as upside-skew (bullish) for NG; no explicit counterevidence objects were present in admitted set.",
"Timeseries is conservative and uses available recency/heat metadata; underlying evidence timestamps are partially truncated in the provided cache payload."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}