Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-02T23:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-001 Near-term narrative mass remains supportive of lithium demand (EV adoption + battery tech momentum), implying upward bias for lithium futures. 63 up accelerating 24h false 60
lithium B-lithium-002 Upside bias is partially fragile because several drivers are thematic/second-order (EV/battery narratives) rather than direct lithium price tightness signals, raising whipsaw risk on new policy/supply headlines. 58 mixed stable 6h false 60

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "CIS-20260402T233000Z-lithium-001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-02T23:30:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 60, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-lithium-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term narrative mass remains supportive of lithium demand (EV adoption + battery tech momentum), implying upward bias for lithium futures.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption momentum (multi-entity OEM/China/Europe coverage)", "Battery chemistry advancement narrative (CATL/peers)", "Battery manufacturing / ecosystem capacity expansion signals" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Policy/trade-operational uncertainty flag (seed-level, high-impact classification)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Upside bias is partially fragile because several drivers are thematic/second-order (EV/battery narratives) rather than direct lithium price tightness signals, raising whipsaw risk on new policy/supply headlines.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Cross-domain narrative breadth (EV policy + supply chain + tech) with uneven direct price linkage", "Fresh risk anomaly classification (operational_surge_risk) without fully materialised evidence bundle" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-lithium-001", "B-lithium-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 150, "B": 9, "C": 13, "D": 228, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signals": 2, "fresh_6_24h_signals": 6, "fresh_24_72h_signals": 4, "stale_gt_72h_signals": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-lithium-001", "market": "lithium", "type": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "level": "medium", "detail": "Most admitted signals are demand/tech/policy narratives; direct lithium price-tightness evidence not explicit in admitted set." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-lithium-002", "market": "lithium", "type": "data_sparsity_in_risk_anomaly", "level": "medium", "detail": "A short-term high-impact risk anomaly is present, but its evidence bundle is seed-level (records not materialised), increasing uncertainty vs directional narrative." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Directional mass remains bullish AND no additional fresh (<=2h) opposing policy/supply shock signals appear." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Any fresh opposing cluster (>=2 independent signals in <=2h) emerges that shifts contradiction materially upward." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Policy/trade-operational headlines accelerate (risk anomaly corroborates) while bullish narrative remains intact." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.", "No explicit contradictory (bearish) trend set was provided; reversal risk set to medium due to fresh high-impact risk anomaly classification with incomplete evidence materialisation.", "State_change set to new_bullish because no prior state memory was supplied (prior assumed neutral baseline).", "Timeseries bucket evidence counts are derived from timestamps visible in admitted signal samples and may undercount full corpus activity." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }