Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: reversal_warning_recent_risk_anomaly (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-02T08:15:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-001 Demand-side narratives (EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity expansion) remain the dominant driver in the last 24h, supporting a higher lithium futures bias over the next 6–24h. 62 up stable 24h false 65
lithium B-lithium-002 Supply-response narratives (extraction technology + mining / refining capacity buildout) are sufficiently present to cap upside and increase the probability of near-term choppiness rather than a clean trend. 58 mixed accelerating 24h false 65
lithium B-lithium-003 China-linked operational/policy uncertainty is rising enough to elevate short-term reversal/volatility risk for lithium-linked pricing narratives (even without confirmed bearish price catalysts). 47 mixed accelerating 6h false 65

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260402T081500Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-02T08:15:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 65, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-lithium-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Demand-side narratives (EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity expansion) remain the dominant driver in the last 24h, supporting a higher lithium futures bias over the next 6\u201324h.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption / OEM electrification strategy coverage (Tesla/BYD/GM/BMW clusters)", "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narrative (Tesla/LG Energy Solution clusters)", "Battery chemistry advancement narrative (CATL cluster)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-lithium-002", "B-lithium-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Supply-response narratives (extraction technology + mining / refining capacity buildout) are sufficiently present to cap upside and increase the probability of near-term choppiness rather than a clean trend.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Lithium extraction innovation / DLE-style themes", "Hard-rock project and supply-chain security emphasis (Australia/Chile themes)", "Refining / processing capacity themes" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-lithium-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-003", "market": "lithium", "claim": "China-linked operational/policy uncertainty is rising enough to elevate short-term reversal/volatility risk for lithium-linked pricing narratives (even without confirmed bearish price catalysts).", "probability_pct": 47, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "China-related regulator/operational anomaly flagged in the most recent window", "High sensitivity of lithium sentiment to China demand/policy headlines" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-lithium-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-lithium-001", "B-lithium-002", "B-lithium-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 110, "B": 9, "C": 18, "D": 155, "U": 0, "note": "Approximate roll-up from admitted trend evidence bundles; not a full per-record recount (input truncated)." }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_count": 12, "fresh_6_24h_count": 14, "stale_gt_24h_count": 6, "freshness_weighted_share_0_to_1": 0.78, "note": "Counts estimated from available per-trend sample timestamps + published timestamps; full record timestamps not provided to 6B." } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "reversal_warning_recent_risk_anomaly", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A short-horizon China-linked operational risk anomaly appears in the most recent window; not enough opposing mass to flip direction, but enough to raise reversal/volatility risk." }, { "flag": "driver_ambiguity_supply_vs_demand", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Both demand-pull (EV adoption / capacity expansions) and supply-response (extraction / mining / refining) narratives are strong; this can produce headline-positive sentiment while price response is less clean." }, { "flag": "timeseries_sparsity_from_sampling", "severity": "low", "detail": "Signal timeseries uses only timestamps available in trend source_ref_sample + VIP/risk published times; bucket-level conviction is conservative." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source confirmation resumes on EV demand / battery capacity expansion themes without a contradiction spike, maintain watch_long_bias." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If additional independent China-linked operational/policy signals arrive within the next 2\u20136h, elevate reversal_watch and treat bullish thesis as more fragile." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises materially (fresh opposing records) or the next cycle shows a direction flip in admitted evidence, activate hard_de_risk_watch." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 34, "acceleration_score": 34, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -34, "acceleration_score": -68, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 34, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 94, "bullish_pressure_score": 94, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 94, "velocity_score": 94, "acceleration_score": 94, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 85, "fragility_score_0_100": 10, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -94, "acceleration_score": -188, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 94, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 22, "acceleration_score": 22, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -22, "acceleration_score": -44, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 46, "acceleration_score": 68, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -46, "acceleration_score": -92, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 46, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 22, "acceleration_score": 22, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 36, "acceleration_score": 14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 37, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -36, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 37, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": -12, "acceleration_score": -12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -46, "acceleration_score": -34, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 90, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -25, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": -25, "velocity_score": -25, "acceleration_score": 21, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 22, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "bearish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 94, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -25, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 25, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No explicit contradictory trends were supplied (workflow5b_output.contradictions empty); counterpressure here is primarily from risk anomaly + driver ambiguity rather than direct opposing evidence.", "Timeseries buckets are derived from available per-trend source_ref_sample timestamps and VIP/risk published timestamps; full per-record timestamp distribution was not available within the gated payload." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }