Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-02T23:03:27Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | B-gold-1 | Gold futures direction is likely mixed/rangebound over the next 24h because available gold-specific signals in the corpus are thin and predominantly stale versus the current snapshot time. | 52 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 74 |
| gold | B-gold-2 | Tail-risk skew remains two-sided (up or down) because the corpus contains geopolitical/macro risk context but lacks fresh gold-market-confirming updates inside the last 72h window. | 55 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260402T230327Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-02T23:03:27Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 37, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 33, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-gold-1", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold futures direction is likely mixed/rangebound over the next 24h because available gold-specific signals in the corpus are thin and predominantly stale versus the current snapshot time.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "data_sparsity_in_gold_specific_signals", "stale_macro_and_flow_context" ], "contradicted_by": [ "fresh_high-clarity_real_rates_or_usd_signal_not_present_in_admitted_set" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 33, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-gold-2", "market": "gold", "claim": "Tail-risk skew remains two-sided (up or down) because the corpus contains geopolitical/macro risk context but lacks fresh gold-market-confirming updates inside the last 72h window.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_risk_backdrop_stale", "real_rates_inflation_context_stale" ], "contradicted_by": [ "fresh_geopolitical_escalation_directly_referenced_to_gold_not_present", "fresh_etf_flow_or_central_bank_flow_signal_not_present" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 32, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 33, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-gold-1", "B-gold-2" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 3, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 1, "U": 1 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "fresh_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt_72h": 4 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "data_sparsity", "level": "high", "detail": "Gold-specific admitted signals are few and not refreshed within the last 72h." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "level": "high", "detail": "Most admitted macro/flow-related context is dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09, which is stale relative to the 2026-04-02 snapshot." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "level": "medium", "detail": "Given thin current evidence, any late-breaking rates/USD/geopolitical update could rapidly change directionality." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "No fresh (<=24h) gold-specific confirmation for either bullish safe-haven demand or bearish real-rate pressure." }, { "market": "gold", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Any new high-authority macro print or policy signal that directly shifts real-rates/USD expectations." }, { "market": "gold", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh signals (<2h) appear that clearly flip gold directionality versus the current neutral baseline." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { 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"contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly to gold; non-gold geopolitical/oil-linked trends were treated as out-of-scope for canonical market mapping and not admitted as gold signals.", "Admitted gold-relevant items (VIP/risk) are predominantly dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; >72h staleness triggered stale suppression and reduced conviction.", "Prior state not provided to 6B; state_change set to 'unchanged' with neutral baseline." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }