Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
- generated_at: 2026-04-02T00:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-gold-001 |
Gold futures are likely to remain rangebound/mixed over the next 6h because the admitted gold-specific evidence is stale and below the minimum evidence threshold. |
56 |
mixed |
fading |
6h |
false |
74 |
| gold |
B-gold-002 |
Residual (stale) disruption/traceability narratives around physical gold flow may bias risk premia upward, but the effect is not currently reinforced by fresh multi-source evidence. |
52 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260402T000000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 34,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures are likely to remain rangebound/mixed over the next 6h because the admitted gold-specific evidence is stale and below the minimum evidence threshold.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity_in_last_24h",
"stale_gold_specific_catalysts_gt_72h"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 24,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Residual (stale) disruption/traceability narratives around physical gold flow may bias risk premia upward, but the effect is not currently reinforced by fresh multi-source evidence.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"physical_flow_disruption_risk",
"traceability_trade_friction_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 22,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 18,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 34,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-gold-001",
"B-gold-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 2,
"last_gold_specific_evidence_utc": "2026-03-09T05:56:54Z"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "high",
"market": "gold",
"details": "Gold-mapped evidence admitted < min_evidence_threshold (3). Direction suppressed to neutral_mixed."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "high",
"market": "gold",
"details": "Most gold-specific signals are >72h old; recency-weighting strongly downweighted them."
},
{
"flag": "cross_market_noise",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "gold",
"details": "Large geopolitical/energy corpus present but not confidently mappable to gold under alias rules; may still influence gold indirectly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral label-state while admitted gold evidence remains below threshold or stale (>72h)."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Enable if 2+ independent gold-specific records appear within 2h (late-breaking), or if contradiction ratio rises on fresh gold-mapped items."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Enable if fresh, opposing gold-specific evidence appears within 2h and materially exceeds current net directional mass (kill-switch sentinel conditions)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 0,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Gold-specific admitted evidence primarily from VIP lane items dated 2026-03-08 to 2026-03-09; as of 2026-04-02 this is stale (>72h), triggering stale suppression.",
"Gold-mapped evidence count below min_evidence_threshold=3; directional state held at neutral_mixed per suppress_direction_if_degraded=true.",
"Prior state not provided via trend_state_memory; state_change set to unchanged as conservative default."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}