Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-TRADEPOLICY-WHIPSAW
  • generated_at: 2026-04-02 23:30 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Near-term copper sentiment supported by electrification/renewable buildout narratives, biasing futures upward. 62 up accelerating 24h false 34
copper B2 Trade-policy headlines amplify volatility; signal mix shows elevated whipsaw risk without fresh bearish counter-mass. 58 mixed stable 6h false 34
copper B3 Supply-side narratives from major miners/projects provide a supportive floor, limiting downside absent a negative shock. 57 up stable 24h false 34

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260402T233000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-02T23:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 34,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper sentiment is supported by accelerating electrification / grid modernisation / renewable buildout narratives, biasing copper futures upward.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "infrastructure_investment"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy headlines are a volatility amplifier for copper; current signal mix does not show fresh bearish counter-mass, but whipsaw risk is elevated.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side narratives (major miners/projects; supply-and-demand framing) continue to provide a supportive floor, limiting downside follow-through in the next 24h absent a fresh negative shock.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "project_execution_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 34,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 72,
 "B": 8,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 100,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_signals_0_24h": 6,
 "fresh_signals_24_72h": 2,
 "stale_background_gt72h": 4
 },
 "regime_state": "tightening"
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-TRADEPOLICY-WHIPSAW",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Trade-policy narrative density is high; headline-driven volatility risk is elevated even without fresh bearish counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SINGLE-SOURCE-VIP-NOISE",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "low",
 "description": "Several VIP outliers are single-source; treated as low-weight confirmation only."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-MACRO-THEME-DEPENDENCY",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Signal is dominated by macro/transition demand narratives rather than tight, directly-quoted inventory/spot dislocations in this payload."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If next-cycle evidence remains fresh with low contradiction and no opposing cluster appears in the last 2h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional trade-policy updates arrive (especially US-China) within the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) bearish records emerge, or an official hard invalidator appears."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 37,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 37,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 35,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 35,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 35,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 34,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 34,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 34,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 33,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 32,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 31,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 18,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change computed assuming neutral prior baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}