Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-001 (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-02T06:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-001 Near-term copper futures bias is upward as electrification/renewable build-out narratives remain dominant and have fresh reinforcement in the last 24h. 62 up accelerating 24h false 46
copper B-002 Supply-side tightness risk remains supportive (mine/supply chain disruption themes persist), providing a price floor and keeping dips relatively shallow. 58 up stable 24h false 46
copper B-003 Reversal/volatility risk is elevated by trade-policy and macro-policy sensitivity (policy headlines can flip sentiment quickly even without direct counterevidence in the corpus). 54 mixed stable 6h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260402T060000Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper futures bias is upward as electrification/renewable build-out narratives remain dominant and have fresh reinforcement in the last 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 73,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side tightness risk remains supportive (mine/supply chain disruption themes persist), providing a price floor and keeping dips relatively shallow.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Reversal/volatility risk is elevated by trade-policy and macro-policy sensitivity (policy headlines can flip sentiment quickly even without direct counterevidence in the corpus).",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-001",
 "B-002",
 "B-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 24,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 78,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_count_est": 10,
 "fresh_6_24h_count_est": 18,
 "fresh_24_72h_count_est": 9,
 "stale_gt_72h_count_est": 25
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "driver_coverage_gap",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Inventory/exchange-stocks and physical balance-sheet signals are not explicitly present in the admitted trend set; directional call leans on demand/supply narratives rather than direct inventory prints."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "trade_policy_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Trade-policy narrative presence implies higher headline-driven volatility; reversal risk elevated despite low explicit counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "single_source_outlier_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Multiple VIP outliers are singleton/low-diversity sources (echo-risk flagged) and should be treated as weak-weight context."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish directional state persists with conviction >= 70 and no late-breaking invalidation."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Trade-policy / macro headlines increase contradiction ratio or introduce fresh opposing evidence within <= 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent opposing signals appear within <= 2h (kill-switch criteria) or contradiction ratio spikes materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score returns to the neutral band (|signed| < 20) with weakening momentum and rising contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 9,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change set to 'unchanged' by fallback policy.",
 "No explicit contradictory records were provided in the admitted corpus; reversal risk is driven by fragility factors (policy/headline sensitivity) rather than observed counterevidence.",
 "Timeseries constructed using available recency proxies and sample timestamps; per-record timestamp distribution was not fully available for exact bucket attribution."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}