Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: macro_logistics_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-04-02T22:34:25Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-COFFEE-1 | Near-term upward price pressure is supported by higher input/fuel costs and logistics/shipping disruption risk feeding into landed coffee costs. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 39 |
| coffee | B-COFFEE-2 | Demand-side tone remains supportive: continued coffee retail/chain expansion and consumer-trend coverage implies resilient consumption, reducing downside pressure on prices. | 57 | up | stable | 24h | false | 39 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_coffee_2026-04-02T22:34:25Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-02T22:34:25Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term upward price pressure is supported by higher input/fuel costs and logistics/shipping disruption risk feeding into landed coffee costs.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"fuel prices / freight cost pressure",
"production cost inflation (inputs, labour)",
"shipping/logistics disruption risk (trade routes, carrier flow disruptions)",
"trade/tariff friction raising frictional costs"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side tone remains supportive: continued coffee retail/chain expansion and consumer-trend coverage implies resilient consumption, reducing downside pressure on prices.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"coffee retail expansion / chain growth headlines",
"consumer demand / product trend coverage"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COFFEE-1",
"B-COFFEE-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 83,
"B": 9,
"C": 6,
"D": 177,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": "high",
"fresh_6_24h": "high",
"stale_gt72h": "low"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_logistics_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "coffee",
"reason": "Shipping/logistics disruption themes are prominent and can swing quickly; price-impact direction is generally bullish but can whipsaw on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag": "cost_pass_through_uncertainty",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "coffee",
"reason": "Input/fuel cost pressure is supportive for prices, but the timing/magnitude of pass-through to futures can be noisy."
},
{
"flag": "indirect_mapping_risk",
"severity": "low",
"market": "coffee",
"reason": "A portion of admitted evidence is cross-commodity / general-ag and mapped indirectly to coffee."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh disruption/cost-pressure signals persist and no fresh opposing supply-easing evidence appears."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if shipping/geopolitical headlines accelerate (more frequent fresh items) or contradiction ratio rises."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch only if 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) supply-improving / demand-weakening signals appear."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 37,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 36,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 36,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as coffee from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No explicit contradictory records/signals were provided in the admitted corpus (contradictions list empty), so counterevidence scoring remains low and reversal risk stays low.",
"Hourly timeseries is conservatively approximated from trend-level recency/velocity/temporal_profile fields (per-record timestamp stream not fully available to this workflow stage).",
"State_change set to new_bullish (unknown prior baseline assumed neutral due to no prior state memory provided in inputs)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}