Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: relevance_dilution
- generated_at: 2026-04-02T06:47:30Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Near-term coffee futures are experiencing net upward price pressure from supply-side risk (weather/crop disease risk signals and origin/shipping friction), outweighing any demand-side dilution in the current admitted corpus. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
46 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Short-horizon (6h) risk is skewed toward volatility-up rather than a clean reversal because the freshest admitted evidence is disruption/cost themed and not countered by fresh, opposing coffee-specific fundamentals. |
66 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
46 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Demand/retail expansion and consumer-trend narratives add secondary support to a bullish bias, but are less price-determinative than supply/logistics risk for the current window. |
57 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260402T064730Z-coffee",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-02T06:47:30Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures are experiencing net upward price pressure from supply-side risk (weather/crop disease risk signals and origin/shipping friction), outweighing any demand-side dilution in the current admitted corpus.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"weather_disruptions",
"crop_conditions_disease",
"origin_supply",
"shipping_freight"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Short-horizon (6h) risk is skewed toward volatility-up rather than a clean reversal because the freshest admitted evidence is disruption/cost themed and not countered by fresh, opposing coffee-specific fundamentals.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"labour_costs",
"macro_geopolitical_risk_proxy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand/retail expansion and consumer-trend narratives add secondary support to a bullish bias, but are less price-determinative than supply/logistics risk for the current window.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 14,
"B": 2,
"C": 1,
"D": 33,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 12,
"fresh_6_24h": 28,
"stale_gt_24h": 10,
"notes": "Approximate mix inferred from admitted trend bundles and newest/oldest timestamps; overlap across bundles likely."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "relevance_dilution",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is macro/logistics themed (not coffee-harvest specific), increasing model-to-price slippage risk."
},
{
"risk_flag": "macro_geopolitical_shipping_crosswind",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Shipping/logistics disruption narratives can whipsaw quickly on new headlines, elevating reversal/volatility risk despite bullish bias."
},
{
"risk_flag": "data_sparsity_direct_futures_context",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "No direct price/positioning microstructure inputs were provided to 6B; state is derived from admitted narrative/evidence bundles."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional fresh (<=24h) coffee-specific supply constraint evidence (weather/crop disease/origin shipment shortfalls) without matching fresh counterevidence."
},
{
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<=6h) logistics/geopolitical escalation headline that materially increases shipping/freight disruption breadth."
},
{
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Emergence of fresh, multi-source counterevidence indicating rapid normalization of shipping lanes and/or improving origin crop prospects."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 33,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as coffee.",
"No explicit contradiction objects present in provided 5B payload; reversal risk elevated to medium primarily due to macro/logistics whipsaw potential rather than in-corpus counterevidence.",
"State_change set to new_bullish due to unknown prior state in provided inputs."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}