Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-02T23:01:21Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-01 |
Near-term risk premium remains supported by geopolitically-driven supply-disruption/chokepoint narratives (Iran/Gulf security incidents; maritime chokepoints; related policy/security commentary), biasing Brent... |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
52 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-02 |
Macro-demand and policy framing introduces counter-pressure (risk-off / demand uncertainty), limiting follow-through and raising whipsaw risk even if the directional bias remains upward. |
38 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260402T230121Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-02T23:01:21Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-01",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term risk premium remains supported by geopolitically-driven supply-disruption/chokepoint narratives (Iran/Gulf security incidents; maritime chokepoints; related policy/security commentary), biasing Brent crude futures upward.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"inventory_storage",
"refining_constraints",
"opec_supply_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-02",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro-demand and policy framing introduces counter-pressure (risk-off / demand uncertainty), limiting follow-through and raising whipsaw risk even if the directional bias remains upward.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand",
"policy_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude-01"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 83,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-01",
"B-crude-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 22,
"B": 1,
"C": 2,
"D": 25,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.45,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.45,
"stale_gt_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.1
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Signal stack is heavily driven by fast-moving geopolitical/security narratives; several trends show spike-and-fade shapes, increasing whipsaw probability despite bullish bias."
},
{
"flag": "macro_counterpressure_present",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Macro/policy themes introduce genuine counter-pressure that can dampen follow-through and raise reversal risk if risk appetite shifts."
},
{
"flag": "echo_concentration_in_vip_lane",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Multiple VIP/risk items are singleton/low-diversity; treated as peripheral unless corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical/chokepoint updates persist (<=6h) without credible opposing evidence, maintain watch_long_bias label."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If macro-demand/policy narratives strengthen within the next 6\u201324h (rising counterevidence mass), elevate reversal_watch label."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fast-breaking headlines cluster (multiple independent records inside 2\u20136h), keep volatility_watch label active."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 78,
"bullish_pressure_score": 89,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 78,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 85,
"bullish_pressure_score": 93,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 85,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 82,
"bullish_pressure_score": 91,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 82,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 79,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 79,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 77,
"bullish_pressure_score": 89,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 77,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 87,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 73,
"bullish_pressure_score": 87,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 73,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 75,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 75,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 87,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 76,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 76,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 80,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 80,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 82,
"bullish_pressure_score": 91,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 82,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 85,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 28,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil; single-market synthesis applied.",
"No explicit contradiction_record_ids were provided in admitted trends; counterevidence is inferred only from mixed driver arenas (macro/policy vs geopolitical risk premium).",
"Signal-timeseries values are heuristic aggregates based on admitted trend timestamps/recency markers (not full per-record timestamp distributions); treat bucket-level scores as shape indicators, not precise counts."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}