Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-LOW_COUNTEREVIDENCE
  • generated_at: 2026-04-01T21:40:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-URANIUM-001 Near-term uranium futures sentiment is biased upward on fresh nuclear policy/energy-security support and sustained reactor/SMR narrative reinforcement. 62 up accelerating 6h false 46
uranium B-URANIUM-002 Over the next 24h, uranium futures sentiment remains bullish with low observed counterevidence; mining/supply-development updates and geopolitical supply-risk framing add incremental support. 60 up stable 24h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_uranium_20260401T214000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T21:40:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URANIUM-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term uranium futures sentiment is biased upward on fresh nuclear policy/energy-security support and sustained reactor/SMR narrative reinforcement.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "energy_security",
 "nuclear_innovation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URANIUM-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, uranium futures sentiment remains bullish with low observed counterevidence; mining/supply-development updates and geopolitical supply-risk framing add incremental support.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "reactor_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-URANIUM-001",
 "B-URANIUM-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 97,
 "B": 14,
 "C": 20,
 "D": 223,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 16,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 28,
 "stale_gt_24h_est": 60,
 "note": "Estimated from trend-level recency proxies and sample timestamps; not a per-record full recount."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LOW_COUNTEREVIDENCE",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Admitted corpus shows minimal explicit opposing/negative evidence; reversal modelling is therefore primarily recency-driven rather than contradiction-driven."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-THEMATIC_TO_PRICE_GAP",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Many drivers are policy/innovation/energy-security narratives rather than direct spot/term pricing or contract-flow signals; increases fragility versus a true price-tape-confirmed move."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_SHARE_OVERHANG",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Despite meaningful Tier-A presence, aggregate evidence mix is still skewed toward lower-tier sources; conviction is mass-consensus-led but authority confirmation is only medium."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If next-cycle evidence maintains positive direction with low contradiction while fresh (<=24h) coverage remains broad across independent sources."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if a new (<=2h) opposing cluster emerges (2+ independent opposing records) or contradiction ratio rises materially versus the last 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch only if explicit counterevidence appears and accelerates; currently counterevidence mass is insufficient to justify elevated reversal risk."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 67,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 67,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 69,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 71,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 73,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 73,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 75,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 75,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 87,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 77,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 92,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 80,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradictions/counterevidence objects were present in the admitted signal set; reversal risk kept low by rule (counterevidence-driven).",
 "State-change computed with unknown prior state; defaulted to 'unchanged' to avoid inventing prior-direction transitions.",
 "Timeseries bucket values are conservative reconstructions from trend-level recency proxies and sample timestamps (not a full per-record time histogram)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}