Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-LOW_COUNTEREVIDENCE
- generated_at: 2026-04-01T21:40:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-URANIUM-001 |
Near-term uranium futures sentiment is biased upward on fresh nuclear policy/energy-security support and sustained reactor/SMR narrative reinforcement. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
46 |
| uranium |
B-URANIUM-002 |
Over the next 24h, uranium futures sentiment remains bullish with low observed counterevidence; mining/supply-development updates and geopolitical supply-risk framing add incremental support. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_uranium_20260401T214000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T21:40:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-URANIUM-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium futures sentiment is biased upward on fresh nuclear policy/energy-security support and sustained reactor/SMR narrative reinforcement.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"energy_security",
"nuclear_innovation"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-URANIUM-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, uranium futures sentiment remains bullish with low observed counterevidence; mining/supply-development updates and geopolitical supply-risk framing add incremental support.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"reactor_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-URANIUM-001",
"B-URANIUM-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 97,
"B": 14,
"C": 20,
"D": 223,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 16,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 28,
"stale_gt_24h_est": 60,
"note": "Estimated from trend-level recency proxies and sample timestamps; not a per-record full recount."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LOW_COUNTEREVIDENCE",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Admitted corpus shows minimal explicit opposing/negative evidence; reversal modelling is therefore primarily recency-driven rather than contradiction-driven."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-THEMATIC_TO_PRICE_GAP",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Many drivers are policy/innovation/energy-security narratives rather than direct spot/term pricing or contract-flow signals; increases fragility versus a true price-tape-confirmed move."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_SHARE_OVERHANG",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Despite meaningful Tier-A presence, aggregate evidence mix is still skewed toward lower-tier sources; conviction is mass-consensus-led but authority confirmation is only medium."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If next-cycle evidence maintains positive direction with low contradiction while fresh (<=24h) coverage remains broad across independent sources."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if a new (<=2h) opposing cluster emerges (2+ independent opposing records) or contradiction ratio rises materially versus the last 6h."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal watch only if explicit counterevidence appears and accelerates; currently counterevidence mass is insufficient to justify elevated reversal risk."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 67,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 67,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 69,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 71,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 73,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 73,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 75,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 75,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 87,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 77,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 92,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 80,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradictions/counterevidence objects were present in the admitted signal set; reversal risk kept low by rule (counterevidence-driven).",
"State-change computed with unknown prior state; defaulted to 'unchanged' to avoid inventing prior-direction transitions.",
"Timeseries bucket values are conservative reconstructions from trend-level recency proxies and sample timestamps (not a full per-record time histogram)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}