• subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-01 23:01 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Geopolitical-risk overhang continues to provide intermittent safe-haven support for gold futures. 52 up fading 24h false 76
gold B-GOLD-002 Rates/real-yield and USD-strength narratives remain a headwind and can cap upside in gold futures. 48 down fading 24h false 76
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_20260401T230111Z_gold",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T23:01:11Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Geopolitical-risk overhang continues to provide intermittent safe-haven support for gold futures.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk",
 "risk_aversion_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Rates/real-yield and USD-strength narratives remain a headwind and can cap upside in gold futures.",
 "probability_pct": 48,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "macro_policy_uncertainty"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-GOLD-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 33,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 47,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 30,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-001",
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 37,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 54,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 1,
 "notes": "Most admitted drivers are >72h old relative to snapshot; treated as background context only."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "high",
 "market": "gold",
 "details": "Most relevant macro/geopolitical drivers in the admitted set are materially stale (>72h), so directional inference is suppressed."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_recent",
 "severity": "high",
 "market": "gold",
 "details": "Insufficient fresh (last-24h) corroborated signals mapped to gold drivers; conviction capped and fragility elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "gold",
 "details": "Mixed macro (rates/USD) vs risk-off (geopolitics) framing; low freshness makes state sensitive to new inputs."
 },
 {
 "flag": "unknown_prior_state",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "gold",
 "details": "No explicit prior market-state memory provided; state_change computed with unknown_prior fallback."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Stay Flat unless >=3 independent gold-mapped fresh signals (<=24h) push directional_score_signed beyond +/-20 with improving freshness."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility Watch if a new high-authority, time-stamped (<=6h) rates/FX catalyst or geopolitical escalation appears with multi-source confirmation."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal Watch if fresh opposing evidence emerges within 2h that materially increases contradiction_ratio vs the prior cycle."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T23:01:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T00:01:11Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T00:01:11Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T01:01:11Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T02:01:11Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T03:01:11Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T04:01:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T05:01:11Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T05:01:11Z",
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:01:11Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:01:11Z",
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 {
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 {
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:01:11Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:01:11Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:01:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:01:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:01:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:01:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:01:11Z",
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:01:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:01:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:01:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:01:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:01:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:01:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:01:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:01:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:01:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:01:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T22:01:11Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T23:01:11Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 6,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 2,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to 'gold'.",
 "Most gold-relevant signals in provided corpus are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (stale vs 2026-04-01 snapshot); stale suppression applied.",
 "Directional state forced to neutral_mixed due to low freshness confidence and mixed driver directionality."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}