- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-01 23:01 UTC
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-GOLD-001 |
Geopolitical-risk overhang continues to provide intermittent safe-haven support for gold futures. |
52 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
76 |
| gold |
B-GOLD-002 |
Rates/real-yield and USD-strength narratives remain a headwind and can cap upside in gold futures. |
48 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
76 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_20260401T230111Z_gold",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T23:01:11Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Geopolitical-risk overhang continues to provide intermittent safe-haven support for gold futures.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk",
"risk_aversion_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-GOLD-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Rates/real-yield and USD-strength narratives remain a headwind and can cap upside in gold futures.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"macro_policy_uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-GOLD-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 33,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 47,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 30,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-001",
"B-GOLD-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 37,
"B": 4,
"C": 0,
"D": 54,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"stale_24_72h": 0,
"stale_over_72h": 1,
"notes": "Most admitted drivers are >72h old relative to snapshot; treated as background context only."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "high",
"market": "gold",
"details": "Most relevant macro/geopolitical drivers in the admitted set are materially stale (>72h), so directional inference is suppressed."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_recent",
"severity": "high",
"market": "gold",
"details": "Insufficient fresh (last-24h) corroborated signals mapped to gold drivers; conviction capped and fragility elevated."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "gold",
"details": "Mixed macro (rates/USD) vs risk-off (geopolitics) framing; low freshness makes state sensitive to new inputs."
},
{
"flag": "unknown_prior_state",
"severity": "low",
"market": "gold",
"details": "No explicit prior market-state memory provided; state_change computed with unknown_prior fallback."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Stay Flat unless >=3 independent gold-mapped fresh signals (<=24h) push directional_score_signed beyond +/-20 with improving freshness."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility Watch if a new high-authority, time-stamped (<=6h) rates/FX catalyst or geopolitical escalation appears with multi-source confirmation."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal Watch if fresh opposing evidence emerges within 2h that materially increases contradiction_ratio vs the prior cycle."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T23:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T00:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T00:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T01:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T01:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T02:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T02:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T03:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T03:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T04:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T04:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T05:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T05:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T06:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T07:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T08:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T11:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T14:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T15:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T15:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T16:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T17:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T22:01:11Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T23:01:11Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 6,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 2,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to 'gold'.",
"Most gold-relevant signals in provided corpus are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (stale vs 2026-04-01 snapshot); stale suppression applied.",
"Directional state forced to neutral_mixed due to low freshness confidence and mixed driver directionality."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}