Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: gold
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-STALE-001 (stale_context_overhang, severity: high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-01 00:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-GOLD-1 |
Gold futures are unlikely to show a durable directional impulse over the next 6–24h from this corpus because mapped gold-specific drivers are sparse and stale (mostly early March). |
62 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
78 |
| gold |
B-GOLD-2 |
Operational/traceability and trade-flow disruption narratives around physical gold (incl. UAE/India/LBMA refs) remain a background tail-risk rather than a fresh catalyst in the next 24h. |
55 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
78 |
| gold |
B-GOLD-3 |
Gold-ETF (GLD) activity signals in this corpus are too thin (singleton) and stale to be treated as a reliable near-term directional confirmation for GC. |
66 |
flat |
fading |
6h |
false |
78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-1",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures are unlikely to show a durable directional impulse over the next 6\u201324h from this corpus because mapped gold-specific drivers are sparse and stale (mostly early March).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity",
"stale_geopolitical_context",
"stale_macro_context"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-2",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Operational/traceability and trade-flow disruption narratives around physical gold (incl. UAE/India/LBMA references) remain a background tail-risk rather than a fresh catalyst in the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"physical_gold_trade_disruption_signal",
"traceability_risk",
"singletons_unconfirmed"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-3",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold-ETF (GLD) activity signals in this corpus are too thin (singleton) and stale to be treated as a reliable near-term directional confirmation for GC.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"etf_positioning_singleton",
"low_source_diversity",
"staleness"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 32,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-1",
"B-GOLD-2",
"B-GOLD-3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"stale_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 3,
"mapped_signal_count_total": 3
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-STALE-001",
"market": "gold",
"type": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Gold-mapped signals are predominantly from 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (>72h old vs 2026-04-01), so direction is suppressed and momentum marked weakening."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SPARSE-001",
"market": "gold",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Only a small number of gold/GLD/physical-gold tagged items map cleanly to the gold market; most broader geopolitical items did not include gold aliases and were treated as unmapped."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-ECHO-001",
"market": "gold",
"type": "echo_concentration",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several gold-relevant signals appear as single-source/singleton items; this raises fragility even when sentiment appears directionally suggestive."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while freshness_confidence remains low and mapped fresh_evidence_count_24h stays near zero."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if any Tier-A source produces gold-specific confirmation within a 0\u20136h window (fresh catalyst) or if multiple independent sources corroborate physical gold trade disruption."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) opposing macro signal appears (e.g., sharp real-rate/USD impulse) AND gold-specific evidence shows a contradiction spike, treat as reversal-risk elevation."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Activate only if late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggers (>=2 independent opposing records within 2h or 1 structural hard invalidator) which is not currently present."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
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},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Most high-volume trends in the provided corpus are geopolitical but do not explicitly reference gold/xau/bullion/GC/GLD aliases; they were treated as unmapped for strict market mapping compliance.",
"Gold-mapped items were primarily VIP singletons dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; no mapped fresh evidence was present in the last 24h window ending 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z.",
"Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change set to 'unchanged' as a conservative default."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}