Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: gold
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-STALE-001 (stale_context_overhang, severity: high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-01 00:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-1 Gold futures are unlikely to show a durable directional impulse over the next 6–24h from this corpus because mapped gold-specific drivers are sparse and stale (mostly early March). 62 mixed fading 24h false 78
gold B-GOLD-2 Operational/traceability and trade-flow disruption narratives around physical gold (incl. UAE/India/LBMA refs) remain a background tail-risk rather than a fresh catalyst in the next 24h. 55 mixed fading 24h false 78
gold B-GOLD-3 Gold-ETF (GLD) activity signals in this corpus are too thin (singleton) and stale to be treated as a reliable near-term directional confirmation for GC. 66 flat fading 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-1",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures are unlikely to show a durable directional impulse over the next 6\u201324h from this corpus because mapped gold-specific drivers are sparse and stale (mostly early March).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity",
 "stale_geopolitical_context",
 "stale_macro_context"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-2",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Operational/traceability and trade-flow disruption narratives around physical gold (incl. UAE/India/LBMA references) remain a background tail-risk rather than a fresh catalyst in the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "physical_gold_trade_disruption_signal",
 "traceability_risk",
 "singletons_unconfirmed"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-3",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold-ETF (GLD) activity signals in this corpus are too thin (singleton) and stale to be treated as a reliable near-term directional confirmation for GC.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "etf_positioning_singleton",
 "low_source_diversity",
 "staleness"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 32,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-1",
 "B-GOLD-2",
 "B-GOLD-3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 3,
 "mapped_signal_count_total": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-STALE-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Gold-mapped signals are predominantly from 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (>72h old vs 2026-04-01), so direction is suppressed and momentum marked weakening."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SPARSE-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Only a small number of gold/GLD/physical-gold tagged items map cleanly to the gold market; most broader geopolitical items did not include gold aliases and were treated as unmapped."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-ECHO-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "type": "echo_concentration",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several gold-relevant signals appear as single-source/singleton items; this raises fragility even when sentiment appears directionally suggestive."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while freshness_confidence remains low and mapped fresh_evidence_count_24h stays near zero."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if any Tier-A source produces gold-specific confirmation within a 0\u20136h window (fresh catalyst) or if multiple independent sources corroborate physical gold trade disruption."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) opposing macro signal appears (e.g., sharp real-rate/USD impulse) AND gold-specific evidence shows a contradiction spike, treat as reversal-risk elevation."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Activate only if late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggers (>=2 independent opposing records within 2h or 1 structural hard invalidator) which is not currently present."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Most high-volume trends in the provided corpus are geopolitical but do not explicitly reference gold/xau/bullion/GC/GLD aliases; they were treated as unmapped for strict market mapping compliance.",
 "Gold-mapped items were primarily VIP singletons dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; no mapped fresh evidence was present in the last 24h window ending 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z.",
 "Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change set to 'unchanged' as a conservative default."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}