Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-01T23:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-001 Copper futures sentiment skews upward into the next 6–24h as fresh macro/infrastructure + energy-transition demand narratives dominate the corpus with low observed counterevidence. 62 up accelerating 6h false 44
copper B-002 Intraday volatility risk remains elevated (policy/trade + macro headline sensitivity), but the dominant state remains bullish unless fresh opposing macro-demand signals appear. 58 mixed stable 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_copper_2026-04-01T23:30:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T23:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures (HG)",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures sentiment skews upward into the next 6\u201324h as fresh macro/infrastructure + energy-transition demand narratives dominate the corpus with low observed counterevidence.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks (not directly observed; narrative pressure only)",
 "china_policy (indirect via global electrification/grid capex narratives)",
 "trade_policy (headline-driven volatility, but not net bearish in admitted set)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Potential adverse trade-policy/macro surprises (not present as admitted opposing evidence in this snapshot)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Intraday volatility risk remains elevated (policy/trade + macro headline sensitivity), but the dominant state remains bullish unless fresh opposing macro-demand signals appear.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-001",
 "B-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 22,
 "U": 0,
 "basis_note": "Estimated from admitted trend authority-tier mixes; counts are not de-duplicated across overlapping record bundles."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_records_last_24h_est": 10,
 "stale_records_24h_plus_est": 90,
 "basis_note": "Estimated from per-trend newest_timestamp proxies + visible fresh source samples; not a full per-record scan."
 },
 "regime_state": "tightening"
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy and macro-indicator headline sensitivity can swing copper sentiment quickly even without embedded counterevidence in this snapshot."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "A meaningful share of the bullish thesis is slow-burn (multi-week) energy-transition/infrastructure narrative rather than a new, discrete supply/demand shock."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "recency_flip",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "If a single high-impact macro miss or policy restriction hits within the next 6h, sentiment could pivot despite currently low contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while the next 6h window continues to show net-positive directional mass and no fresh opposing cluster emerges."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if trade-policy or macro headlines increase contradiction ratio or introduce fresh opposing evidence within 0\u20136h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Activate reversal watch only if 2+ independent opposing records appear inside a 2h window (late-breaking invalidation conditions)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as copper from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "No explicit contradiction records provided in admitted trend set; reversal risk kept low by rule (counterevidence-driven).",
 "Many admitted signals are thematic (energy transition / infrastructure / trade policy) and may translate into price action with lag; fragility elevated versus a pure inventory/supply shock regime.",
 "VIP outliers are single-source and were not used as primary directional drivers."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}