Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: policy_headline_volatility (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-01 07:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Net bias for copper futures is upward over the next 24h as electrification/renewables and infrastructure buildout narratives remain dominant, supporting near-term demand. 64 up accelerating 24h false 38
copper B-copper-002 Short-horizon (6h) copper sentiment is strengthening; recent evidence cluster skewed positive with low contradiction, implying persistent bullish pressure into the next session window. 61 up accelerating 6h false 38
copper B-copper-003 Policy/trade-headline sensitivity remains a volatility channel for copper over next 24h; risk of short-lived pullbacks on tariff/trade-policy headlines. 58 mixed stable 24h false 38

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260401T070000Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Net bias for copper futures is upward over the next 24h as electrification/renewables + infrastructure buildout narratives remain dominant and recently refreshed across the corpus, supporting near-term demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Short-horizon (6h) copper sentiment is strengthening rather than fading because the most recent evidence cluster is skewed positive with low measured contradiction, implying incremental bullish pressure persistence into the next session window.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "energy_transition_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Policy/trade-headline sensitivity remains a meaningful volatility channel for copper over the next 24h even if the directional bias stays positive (risk of short-lived pullbacks on tariff/trade-policy headlines).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002",
 "B-copper-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 98,
 "B": 9,
 "C": 4,
 "D": 156,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "window_0_6h": 6,
 "window_6_24h": 15,
 "window_24_72h": 8,
 "window_gt_72h": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "policy_headline_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy related themes are active; can create short-lived whipsaws despite a positive directional mass backdrop."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_tier_noise_presence",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "A meaningful share of supporting corpus volume comes from lower-tier sources; treated as breadth confirmation but down-weighted for authority."
 },
 {
 "flag": "vip_singleton_signal_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source items; treated as exploratory and not thesis-driving."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain watch for continuation if the next 1\u20132h adds fresh confirming evidence without a contradiction spike.",
 "action": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if trade-policy headlines accelerate and contradiction ratio rises materially from the current low baseline.",
 "action": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Shift to reversal watch only if fresh opposing evidence emerges in the last 2h from 2+ independent records or an official hard invalidator appears.",
 "action": "reversal_watch"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T16:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 37,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 35,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 18,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market-state not provided; state_change set as new_bullish under unknown_prior fallback.",
 "No explicit opposing/contradictory evidence objects were present in the admitted corpus; reversal risk driven primarily by volatility channels (policy/trade), not counterevidence mass."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}