Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: thematic_to_price_link_uncertainty
- generated_at: 2026-04-01T22:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Near-term supply-side risk (weather variability, crop/disease risk, and broad farm input/labour cost pressure) is more supportive than suppressive for coffee futures pricing over the next 24h. |
64 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Geopolitical/logistics disruption narratives keep freight/insurance risk elevated, biasing coffee futures toward upside volatility in the next 6h. |
58 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Retail/consumption narrative remains resilient enough to limit downside pressure in coffee futures over the next 24h (supportive-to-neutral demand backdrop). |
55 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260401T223000Z-coffee",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T22:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term supply-side risk (weather variability, crop/disease risk, and broad farm input/labour cost pressure) is more supportive than suppressive for coffee futures pricing over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"weather_disruptions",
"crop_conditions_disease",
"origin_supply",
"labour_costs"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh, specific evidence of improved coffee crop outlook in key origins",
"Credible signals of easing input/freight costs that reduce near-term supply constraint risk"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Geopolitical/logistics disruption narratives keep freight/insurance risk elevated, biasing coffee futures toward upside volatility in the next 6h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh multi-source confirmation of stable shipping lanes / de-escalation reducing freight stress"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Retail/consumption narrative remains resilient enough to limit downside pressure in coffee futures over the next 24h (supportive-to-neutral demand backdrop).",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh evidence of demand shock or rapid consumer pullback"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 10,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 2,
"U": 0,
"basis": "signal_level_primary_anchors (not de-duplicated by underlying record_id)"
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 7,
"signals_6_24h": 5,
"signals_24_72h": 0,
"signals_gt_72h": 0,
"basis": "newest_timestamp_per_signal (from evidence_recency_proxy/source_ref_sample where available)"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "thematic_to_price_link_uncertainty",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "Several admitted drivers are cross-commodity agriculture or retail narratives rather than direct, origin-specific coffee crop/export metrics; maintains moderate fragility despite bullish bias."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_shipping_volatility",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "Logistics/geopolitical narratives can swing quickly and transmit as volatility rather than a clean trend."
},
{
"flag": "data_overlap_possible",
"level": "low",
"detail": "Trend evidence bundles likely share overlapping record_ids; aggregate tier/source counts should be treated as directional, not exact."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If bullish directional score remains >= +20 through the next 6h buckets and contradiction ratio stays <= 0.15 without new opposing signals."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If logistics/geopolitical items continue to surge (fresh evidence count rises) while contradiction ratio increases, expect choppier movement even if net remains bullish."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh, coffee-specific crop improvement / easing freight evidence appears within a 2h window (2+ independent signals) and directional score drops below +20."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"No explicit contradiction set provided in input (workflow5b_output.contradictions empty); reversal risk set to medium due to driver volatility and thematic-to-price linkage uncertainty rather than observed counterevidence.",
"Signal timeseries derived conservatively from signal-level recency/temporal proxies available in admitted trends; per-record timestamp stream not provided to 6B in this payload."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}