Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-01T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-COF-1 | Near-term coffee futures price pressure skews upward as the corpus emphasises production-cost inflation and supply/logistics friction more than offsetting bearish catalysts. | 64 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 48 |
| coffee | B-COF-2 | Demand-side narratives (retail expansion/product innovation/sourcing storytelling) are supportive but are secondary to supply/cost narratives for near-term futures direction. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 48 |
| coffee | B-COF-3 | Volatility risk is elevated because multiple macro-policy and logistics narratives co-occur, even without direct directional contradiction in the admitted set. | 62 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260401-070000Z-coffee",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COF-1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures price pressure skews upward as the corpus emphasises production-cost inflation and supply/logistics friction more than offsetting bearish catalysts.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"production cost factors / input inflation",
"logistics disruption / freight risk propagation",
"policy/tariff uncertainty increasing precautionary bidding"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No explicit fresh, coffee-specific bumper-supply or demand-destruction counter-signal admitted in this cycle"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COF-2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side narratives (retail expansion/product innovation/sourcing storytelling) are supportive but are secondary to supply/cost narratives for near-term futures direction.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption trends / retail expansion",
"brand/product innovation keeping demand expectations resilient"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Macro/policy noise can temporarily dominate and create pullbacks despite supportive demand narratives"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COF-3",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Volatility risk is elevated because multiple macro-policy and logistics narratives co-occur, even without direct directional contradiction in the admitted set.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"tariff/trade-policy headlines",
"shipping/freight uncertainty",
"fast-moving geopolitical logistics narrative cluster"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If policy/logistics headlines quieten, realised volatility can mean-revert quickly"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COF-1",
"B-COF-2",
"B-COF-3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 117,
"B": 13,
"C": 3,
"D": 246,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 140,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 190,
"stale_24_72h_est": 70,
"stale_over_72h_est": 30
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Admitted signals cluster around supply/cost stress plus policy/logistics themes; these can swing intraday even without explicit contradiction records."
},
{
"flag": "policy_headline_volatility",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Tariffs/trade-flow narratives appear alongside logistics disruption themes, raising short-horizon volatility risk."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Directional mass remains positive over the next 6h with no fresh opposing evidence cluster (2+ independent opposing records) emerging."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above 0.20 in the most recent 2h window or rapid alternation between logistics/policy headlines increases."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "A fresh (<=2h) coffee-specific supply-improvement or demand-shock counter-signal appears with independent confirmation."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T18:00:00Z",
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T20:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z",
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 15,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 16,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 18,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 18,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope locked to single-market coffee per explicit flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided; reversal risk set to medium primarily from macro/policy volatility rather than observed opposing evidence.",
"A portion of admitted evidence is cross-commodity (trade/logistics/policy) and may be less price-specific to coffee; mapped as secondary drivers.",
"Unmapped/ignored items: VIP outliers and non-coffee risk anomaly signals treated as background unless directly coffee-linked."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}