Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: crude_oil
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_demand_counterpressure (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-01T23:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1 Geopolitical escalation and chokepoint risk maintain an elevated risk premium, supporting higher Brent near-term. 63 up accelerating 6h false 48
crude_oil B2 Supply disruption and tighter physical/inventory tone supportive for Brent over next day unless demand-shock headlines offset. 60 up stable 24h false 48
crude_oil B3 Macro growth/recession-risk narratives are a counterweight that can cap upside or trigger fast pullbacks if dominant. 46 mixed accelerating 24h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260401T230500Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T23:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical/security escalation and maritime chokepoint risk is maintaining an elevated risk premium, supporting higher Brent prices in the near term.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "maritime_chokepoints",
 "shipping_security_incidents"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Supply disruption and tighter physical market/inventory tone is supportive for Brent over the next day, unless offset by demand shock headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "opec_supply_policy",
 "inventory_storage",
 "physical_market_tightness"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro growth / recession-risk narratives are a live counterweight that can cap upside or trigger fast pullbacks if they become the dominant fresh theme.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand",
 "risk_off_positioning",
 "growth_slowdown_signals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 26,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 24,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.34,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.66,
 "older_than_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_demand_counterpressure",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Macro recession/growth-risk signals are present and can cause pullbacks even while the dominant theme is supply/geopolitical risk premium."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_geopolitics",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Geopolitical/chokepoint-driven upside can reverse quickly on de-escalation headlines; maintain reversal watch despite bullish mass."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_quality_outlier_contamination",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "VIP/risk lanes include single-source low-quality domains; these were treated as low-weight background only."
 },
 {
 "flag": "potential_domain_spoof_or_typo_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "One risk anomaly references a suspicious/typo-like domain string for an EIA-related source; treated as non-core evidence."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical/chokepoint disruption signals persist in the next 6h and contradiction_ratio stays below ~0.20."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If geopolitical headlines remain the dominant driver (high recency heat) with rapid update cadence."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If macro demand downside evidence accelerates (fresh counterevidence) and pushes contradiction_ratio materially higher versus the last cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence becomes sparse or dominated by low-authority single-source items (data quality degradation)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.",
 "No explicit contradiction set provided; reversal risk elevated to medium primarily due to macro-demand downside presence.",
 "Low-quality/single-source VIP and shadow-stream anomalies were treated as low-weight background only (no kill-switch activation).",
 "State change set to new_bullish with unknown prior treated as neutral baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}