Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_demand_counterpressure (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-01T23:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B1 | Geopolitical escalation and chokepoint risk maintain an elevated risk premium, supporting higher Brent near-term. | 63 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 48 |
| crude_oil | B2 | Supply disruption and tighter physical/inventory tone supportive for Brent over next day unless demand-shock headlines offset. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 48 |
| crude_oil | B3 | Macro growth/recession-risk narratives are a counterweight that can cap upside or trigger fast pullbacks if dominant. | 46 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260401T230500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T23:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical/security escalation and maritime chokepoint risk is maintaining an elevated risk premium, supporting higher Brent prices in the near term.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"maritime_chokepoints",
"shipping_security_incidents"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Supply disruption and tighter physical market/inventory tone is supportive for Brent over the next day, unless offset by demand shock headlines.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"opec_supply_policy",
"inventory_storage",
"physical_market_tightness"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro growth / recession-risk narratives are a live counterweight that can cap upside or trigger fast pullbacks if they become the dominant fresh theme.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand",
"risk_off_positioning",
"growth_slowdown_signals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 26,
"B": 1,
"C": 0,
"D": 24,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.34,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.66,
"older_than_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_demand_counterpressure",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Macro recession/growth-risk signals are present and can cause pullbacks even while the dominant theme is supply/geopolitical risk premium."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_geopolitics",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Geopolitical/chokepoint-driven upside can reverse quickly on de-escalation headlines; maintain reversal watch despite bullish mass."
},
{
"flag": "low_quality_outlier_contamination",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "VIP/risk lanes include single-source low-quality domains; these were treated as low-weight background only."
},
{
"flag": "potential_domain_spoof_or_typo_risk",
"severity": "low",
"details": "One risk anomaly references a suspicious/typo-like domain string for an EIA-related source; treated as non-core evidence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical/chokepoint disruption signals persist in the next 6h and contradiction_ratio stays below ~0.20."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitical headlines remain the dominant driver (high recency heat) with rapid update cadence."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If macro demand downside evidence accelerates (fresh counterevidence) and pushes contradiction_ratio materially higher versus the last cycle."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence becomes sparse or dominated by low-authority single-source items (data quality degradation)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.",
"No explicit contradiction set provided; reversal risk elevated to medium primarily due to macro-demand downside presence.",
"Low-quality/single-source VIP and shadow-stream anomalies were treated as low-weight background only (no kill-switch activation).",
"State change set to new_bullish with unknown prior treated as neutral baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}