Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_volatility_risk (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-01 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-001 Brent crude futures biased higher over next 6h as geopolitical / maritime chokepoint risk elevates supply-risk premium. 62 up fading 6h false 58
crude_oil B-CO-002 Downside pressure over next 24h if macro-demand concern dominates, limiting follow-through on geopolitics-led upside. 44 down stable 24h false 58
crude_oil B-CO-003 Net state remains bullish but increasingly rangebound; intraday whipsaw risk elevated as macro counterpressure grows. 57 mixed stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260401T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Brent crude futures are biased higher over the next 6h as geopolitical disruption / maritime chokepoint risk elevates supply-risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "maritime chokepoints / shipping security",
 "risk-premium expansion"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "macro_demand downside / growth-risk signals",
 "supply-security / inventory-security narratives that dampen immediate disruption fear"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Downside pressure is present over the next 24h if macro-demand concern dominates (risk-off impulse), limiting follow-through on the geopolitics-led upside.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand",
 "growth / recession-risk framing",
 "rates / policy sensitivity (indirect)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "fresh geopolitics escalation signals with broad multi-source coverage",
 "chokepoint disruption headlines"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Net state remains bullish but increasingly rangebound: upside is still supported, yet the probability of intraday whipsaw is elevated as macro counterpressure grows.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption vs macro_demand tug-of-war",
 "headline-driven volatility"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "clean de-escalation / resolution headlines (not present in admitted corpus)",
 "clear demand-positive surprise (not present in admitted corpus)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 232,
 "B": 17,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 248,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 165,
 "fresh_6_24h": 118,
 "stale_over_24h": 32,
 "notes": "Counts are derived from the delivered evidence-cache size (315) using recency proxies; overlap across trends may exist."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_volatility_risk",
 "severity": "high",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "detail": "Geopolitical/chokepoint-driven corpus implies abrupt repricing risk even without a confirmed directional break."
 },
 {
 "flag": "macro_counterpressure_present",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "detail": "Fresh macro-growth-risk anomaly provides genuine counterevidence against pure upside continuation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "detail": "Strong geopolitics mass + non-trivial macro counterweight increases probability of intraday reversals/false breakouts."
 },
 {
 "flag": "echo_risk_tail_signals_present",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "detail": "Several VIP/risk items are single-source; treated as fragility inputs rather than direction-setters."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitics/chokepoint updates accelerate within the next 2–6h (new multi-source burst), expect sharper swings."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain upside bias while directional_score_signed remains >= +20 and no late-breaking invalidation appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If macro-demand negatives add 2+ independent fresh records inside a 2h window, treat as potential downside reversal catalyst."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if a hard invalidator arrives (e.g., confirmed de-escalation / supply-restoration headline) within <=2h and corroborated."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 8,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 11,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -16,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 17,
 "acceleration_score": 33,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 24,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 38,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 42,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 26,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 18,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-01T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-01T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 18,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No trend_physics v2 fields were provided; conviction/momentum derived from evidence_bundle recency proxies + temporal_profile shapes.",
 "State_change computed versus unknown prior baseline (assumed neutral => new_bullish).",
 "Tier counts and freshness_mix are aggregated estimates from the evidence cache (315 delivered records) and may double-count overlapping records across trends."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}