Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-31T14:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-001 Policy/energy-security tailwinds are sustaining a pro-nuclear narrative that supports uranium demand expectations over the next 24h window. 62 up stable 24h false 41
uranium B-002 Ongoing mining/project-development headlines are being interpreted net-positive (sector-development framing), contributing supportive sentiment to uranium-linked markets in the near term. 58 up stable 24h false 41
uranium B-003 Near-term reversal odds remain contained because the admitted corpus shows minimal explicit counter-directional evidence; however, fragility persists due to thematic/slow-burn composition. 55 flat fading 6h false 41

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260331T140000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 41, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-001", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Policy/energy-security tailwinds are sustaining a pro-nuclear narrative that supports uranium demand expectations over the next 24h window.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_security / nuclear_policy coverage breadth", "multi-region policy signalling (US/EU/UK) recurring in the corpus", "fresh same-day updates embedded in sustained trends" ], "contradicted_by": [ "lack of explicit spot-price / contract-price confirmation inside the admitted evidence bundle", "some coverage is long-horizon thematic (slow velocity), increasing timing uncertainty" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-002", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Ongoing mining/project-development headlines are being interpreted net-positive (sector-development framing), contributing supportive sentiment to uranium-linked markets in the near term.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "uranium mining / project progress narratives recurring across multiple entities (UEC, Denison, etc.)", "fresh evidence present inside the last 24h in several trend bundles" ], "contradicted_by": [ "project progress can also be interpreted as future supply growth (potentially bearish if it dominates later)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 73, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-003", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term reversal odds remain contained because the admitted corpus shows minimal explicit counter-directional evidence; however, fragility persists due to thematic/slow-burn composition.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "flat", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "low observed contradiction set in admitted signals", "broad but partially thematic evidence mix" ], "contradicted_by": [ "any sudden supply-surprise headline or risk-off macro impulse could flip sentiment quickly (not yet present as admitted counterevidence)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-001", "B-002", "B-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 93, "B": 16, "C": 16, "D": 246, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_est": 18, "fresh_6_24h_est": 62, "stale_24_72h_est": 74, "stale_over_72h_est": 120 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "note": "A meaningful share of admitted support is thematic/slow-burn (>72h span), even though fresh updates are present." }, { "flag": "echo_risk_vip_lane", "market": "uranium", "severity": "low", "note": "Several VIP outliers are single-source items; treated as low-weight context only." }, { "flag": "timing_uncertainty", "market": "uranium", "severity": "low", "note": "Many drivers are policy/innovation narratives rather than direct, immediate price/flow signals." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source confirmation continues without emerging counterevidence and contradiction ratio stays low." }, { "market": "uranium", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent opposing records appear within 2h (e.g., supply surge / contracting weakness) causing a contradiction spike." }, { "market": "uranium", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If late-breaking policy/geopolitical headlines cluster in a short window (<=2h) regardless of direction." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 51, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 53, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -12, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 4, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly to uranium.", "No explicit counter-directional contradiction objects were provided in the admitted corpus.", "Prior state not provided; state_change emitted as new_bullish (unknown_prior baseline)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }