Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_policy_sensitivity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-31T15:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SIL-001 | Industrial demand-linked narrative (solar + electrification + broader industrial uses) is exerting net upward pressure on silver over the next 24h... | 64 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 44 |
| silver | B-SIL-002 | ETF/vehicle flow-related attention around silver (e.g., SLV/PSLV narratives) is supportive and likely to keep spot sentiment biased upward in the near-term (6–24h)... | 60 | up | stable | 6h | false | 44 |
| silver | B-SIL-003 | Supply/operations narrative (mining/exploration/development headlines) is being interpreted as supportive-to-bullish for silver in this cycle (constraints/deficits framing outweighs expansion framing). | 57 | up | fading | 24h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260331-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-31T15:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "inferred_trend",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Industrial demand-linked narrative (solar + electrification + broader industrial uses) is exerting net upward pressure on silver over the next 24h, with fresh reinforcement in the latest cycle.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Industrial demand framing (Metals Focus / Silver Institute references in corpus)",
"Solar manufacturing expansion narrative (silver input-demand linkage)",
"Broad cross-source repetition with recent timestamps"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Macro sensitivity: shifting rate expectations can dampen metals bid",
"Risk-on/risk-off rotation can pull flows away from precious metals"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "ETF/vehicle flow-related attention around silver (e.g., SLV/PSLV narratives) is supportive and likely to keep spot sentiment biased upward in the near-term (6\u201324h), absent a macro shock.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"ETF flow clustering (iShares Silver Trust / Sprott Physical Silver Trust themes)",
"Fresh mainstream coverage cadence (Tier A/B sources present in admitted set)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Potential fast reversals if USD/yields spike",
"Flow narratives can be noisy vs. price"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SIL-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Supply/operations narrative (mining/exploration/development headlines) is being interpreted as supportive-to-bullish for silver in this cycle (constraints/deficits framing outweighs expansion framing).",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Silver mining / exploration cluster breadth",
"Deficit / constraint framing recurring across the corpus"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Some items are single-source operational updates (echo-risk)",
"Exploration/development can be interpreted as future supply relief"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SIL-001",
"B-SIL-002",
"B-SIL-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 45,
"B": 5,
"C": 6,
"D": 70,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 18,
"fresh_6_24h": 24,
"fresh_24_72h": 10,
"stale_gt72h": 12
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_policy_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Silver thesis remains highly sensitive to fast changes in rate-path expectations and USD/yield moves."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_headline_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Safe-haven framing is present; abrupt de-escalation/escalation can cause rapid sentiment reversals."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_operational_echo_risk",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "A subset of mining/operations signals are single-source; treat as supplementary until corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish directional score holds while fresh evidence remains dominant and contradiction stays contained."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If multiple fresh opposing macro prints/official signals arrive inside a 2h window and directional score drops below +20."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitical headlines accelerate and contradiction ratio rises materially versus the last 6h baseline."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"flight_plan.system_mode and asset_driver_arenas were not provided; proceeded with degraded gating based on dominant admitted commodity signals.",
"Target market resolved by dominant commodity mapping from trends/vip signals (silver).",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk derived from mixed macro sensitivity and minor intra-window softness."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}