Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_policy_sensitivity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-31T15:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SIL-001 Industrial demand-linked narrative (solar + electrification + broader industrial uses) is exerting net upward pressure on silver over the next 24h... 64 up accelerating 24h false 44
silver B-SIL-002 ETF/vehicle flow-related attention around silver (e.g., SLV/PSLV narratives) is supportive and likely to keep spot sentiment biased upward in the near-term (6–24h)... 60 up stable 6h false 44
silver B-SIL-003 Supply/operations narrative (mining/exploration/development headlines) is being interpreted as supportive-to-bullish for silver in this cycle (constraints/deficits framing outweighs expansion framing). 57 up fading 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260331-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-31T15:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "inferred_trend",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Industrial demand-linked narrative (solar + electrification + broader industrial uses) is exerting net upward pressure on silver over the next 24h, with fresh reinforcement in the latest cycle.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Industrial demand framing (Metals Focus / Silver Institute references in corpus)",
 "Solar manufacturing expansion narrative (silver input-demand linkage)",
 "Broad cross-source repetition with recent timestamps"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Macro sensitivity: shifting rate expectations can dampen metals bid",
 "Risk-on/risk-off rotation can pull flows away from precious metals"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "ETF/vehicle flow-related attention around silver (e.g., SLV/PSLV narratives) is supportive and likely to keep spot sentiment biased upward in the near-term (6\u201324h), absent a macro shock.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "ETF flow clustering (iShares Silver Trust / Sprott Physical Silver Trust themes)",
 "Fresh mainstream coverage cadence (Tier A/B sources present in admitted set)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Potential fast reversals if USD/yields spike",
 "Flow narratives can be noisy vs. price"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SIL-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Supply/operations narrative (mining/exploration/development headlines) is being interpreted as supportive-to-bullish for silver in this cycle (constraints/deficits framing outweighs expansion framing).",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Silver mining / exploration cluster breadth",
 "Deficit / constraint framing recurring across the corpus"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Some items are single-source operational updates (echo-risk)",
 "Exploration/development can be interpreted as future supply relief"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SIL-001",
 "B-SIL-002",
 "B-SIL-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 45,
 "B": 5,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 70,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 18,
 "fresh_6_24h": 24,
 "fresh_24_72h": 10,
 "stale_gt72h": 12
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_policy_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Silver thesis remains highly sensitive to fast changes in rate-path expectations and USD/yield moves."
 },
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_headline_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Safe-haven framing is present; abrupt de-escalation/escalation can cause rapid sentiment reversals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_operational_echo_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "A subset of mining/operations signals are single-source; treat as supplementary until corroborated."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish directional score holds while fresh evidence remains dominant and contradiction stays contained."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If multiple fresh opposing macro prints/official signals arrive inside a 2h window and directional score drops below +20."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If geopolitical headlines accelerate and contradiction ratio rises materially versus the last 6h baseline."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "flight_plan.system_mode and asset_driver_arenas were not provided; proceeded with degraded gating based on dominant admitted commodity signals.",
 "Target market resolved by dominant commodity mapping from trends/vip signals (silver).",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk derived from mixed macro sensitivity and minor intra-window softness."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}