Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: natural_gas
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: fundamental_coverage_gap (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Over the next 6–24 hours, NG futures face net upward price pressure from LNG supply-disruption / export-disruption risk headlines and broader Middle East geopolitical risk premium. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Near-term NG volatility risk is elevated; a fast fade in the geopolitical risk premium could quickly reduce bullish pressure without requiring fundamental confirmation. | 67 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260331T130000Z-natural_gas",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 6\u201324 hours, NG futures face net upward price pressure from LNG supply-disruption / export-disruption risk headlines and broader Middle East geopolitical risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"LNG supply disruption / export disruption (Qatar/Ras Laffan-related operational and geopolitical narratives)",
"Broad, fresh geopolitical escalation coverage (multi-source, repeated updates)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Missing/under-represented: US storage builds, milder weather demand, production resilience, or explicit demand-destruction signals in admitted corpus"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term NG volatility risk is elevated; a fast fade in the geopolitical risk premium could quickly reduce bullish pressure without requiring fundamental confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Catalyst-driven (geopolitical) flow; historically prone to headline reversals",
"Signal set is heavy on geopolitical/operational narratives vs. storage/weather fundamentals"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 222,
"B": 6,
"C": 0,
"D": 304,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 8,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 4,
"fresh_24_72h_est": 0,
"stale_gt72h_est": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "fundamental_coverage_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Admitted corpus is dominated by geopolitical/LNG disruption narratives; explicit storage/weather/production-balance signals are not present here, increasing model fragility vs. fundamentals-driven reversal."
},
{
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Geopolitical-risk-premium narratives can fade quickly; conviction remains positive but reversal risk is non-trivial."
},
{
"flag": "echo_concentration_in_vip_lane",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source items; they were down-weighted vs. multi-source trends."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish pressure persists in the next 6h bucket set (directional_score_signed stays >= +50) without a contradiction spike (contradiction_ratio <= 0.25)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more fresh (<=2h) independent signals imply de-escalation / restored LNG flows OR contradiction_ratio rises above 0.35 while directional_score_signed drops below +20."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains bullish but fragility stays >= 60 (headline-driven regime)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If fundamental signals enter and counterbalance (storage/weather) such that directional_score_signed is between -20 and +20 for 3+ consecutive hourly buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 61,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 61,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 78,
"bullish_pressure_score": 94,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 78,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 71,
"bullish_pressure_score": 87,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 71,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 69,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 69,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 71,
"bullish_pressure_score": 87,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 71,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 73,
"bullish_pressure_score": 89,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 73,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to natural_gas from flight plan.",
"Directional mapping used: LNG supply/export disruption + geopolitical escalation => upward price pressure (bullish) for NG via risk premium channel.",
"No explicit contradictory storage/weather/production-balance evidence was present in admitted objects; reversal risk elevated to medium due to catalyst-driven nature.",
"Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change set to 'unchanged' as a non-assertive default."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}