Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: natural_gas
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: fundamental_coverage_gap (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Over the next 6–24 hours, NG futures face net upward price pressure from LNG supply-disruption / export-disruption risk headlines and broader Middle East geopolitical risk premium. 62 up accelerating 24h false 58
natural_gas B-NG-002 Near-term NG volatility risk is elevated; a fast fade in the geopolitical risk premium could quickly reduce bullish pressure without requiring fundamental confirmation. 67 mixed stable 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260331T130000Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 6\u201324 hours, NG futures face net upward price pressure from LNG supply-disruption / export-disruption risk headlines and broader Middle East geopolitical risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "LNG supply disruption / export disruption (Qatar/Ras Laffan-related operational and geopolitical narratives)",
 "Broad, fresh geopolitical escalation coverage (multi-source, repeated updates)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Missing/under-represented: US storage builds, milder weather demand, production resilience, or explicit demand-destruction signals in admitted corpus"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term NG volatility risk is elevated; a fast fade in the geopolitical risk premium could quickly reduce bullish pressure without requiring fundamental confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Catalyst-driven (geopolitical) flow; historically prone to headline reversals",
 "Signal set is heavy on geopolitical/operational narratives vs. storage/weather fundamentals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 222,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 304,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 8,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 4,
 "fresh_24_72h_est": 0,
 "stale_gt72h_est": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "fundamental_coverage_gap",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Admitted corpus is dominated by geopolitical/LNG disruption narratives; explicit storage/weather/production-balance signals are not present here, increasing model fragility vs. fundamentals-driven reversal."
 },
 {
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Geopolitical-risk-premium narratives can fade quickly; conviction remains positive but reversal risk is non-trivial."
 },
 {
 "flag": "echo_concentration_in_vip_lane",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source items; they were down-weighted vs. multi-source trends."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish pressure persists in the next 6h bucket set (directional_score_signed stays >= +50) without a contradiction spike (contradiction_ratio <= 0.25)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more fresh (<=2h) independent signals imply de-escalation / restored LNG flows OR contradiction_ratio rises above 0.35 while directional_score_signed drops below +20."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains bullish but fragility stays >= 60 (headline-driven regime)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If fundamental signals enter and counterbalance (storage/weather) such that directional_score_signed is between -20 and +20 for 3+ consecutive hourly buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 61,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 61,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 78,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 94,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 78,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 74,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 88,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 71,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 87,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 71,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 69,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 69,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 71,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 87,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 71,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 73,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 89,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 73,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to natural_gas from flight plan.",
 "Directional mapping used: LNG supply/export disruption + geopolitical escalation => upward price pressure (bullish) for NG via risk premium channel.",
 "No explicit contradictory storage/weather/production-balance evidence was present in admitted objects; reversal risk elevated to medium due to catalyst-driven nature.",
 "Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change set to 'unchanged' as a non-assertive default."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}