Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-31T16:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-001 Lithium futures sentiment is biased upward over the next 24h as EV adoption/policy support and battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives remain dominant. 62 up accelerating 24h false 44
lithium B-lithium-002 Upside in lithium futures sentiment is vulnerable to a shift toward mixed/neutral if supply-side expansion and chemistry substitution narratives gain fresh momentum relative to demand signals. 38 mixed stable 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-lithium-20260331T160000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-31T16:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium futures sentiment is biased upward over the next 24h as EV adoption/policy support and battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives remain dominant in the most recent corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "ev_policy_subsidies",
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-lithium-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Upside in lithium futures sentiment is vulnerable to a shift toward mixed/neutral if supply-side expansion (extraction/mining) and chemistry substitution narratives (lower lithium intensity) gain fresh momentum relative to demand signals.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lithium_mining_supply",
 "refining_capacity",
 "battery_supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-lithium-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 51,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-lithium-001",
 "B-lithium-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 160,
 "B": 14,
 "C": 35,
 "D": 261,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Approximate aggregate of authority tier counts across admitted trend evidence bundles; overlapping records likely."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 10,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 28,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 40,
 "stale_gt_72h_est": 120,
 "note": "Heuristic mix inferred from trend evidence_recency_proxy spans and presence of multiple 2026-03-31 timestamps in source_ref_sample; not a de-duplicated record count."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several admitted trends show >7 day evidence spans (slow-burn narratives), which can reduce responsiveness and increase whipsaw risk if a fresh opposing catalyst appears."
 },
 {
 "flag": "substitution_narrative_reversal_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Battery chemistry advancement narratives may eventually imply lower lithium intensity; not currently represented as explicit counter-evidence in the admitted corpus, but increases reversal sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "flag": "china_policy_operational_surge_risk_seed",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "A seed-level risk anomaly referencing China General Administration of Customs is present but not materialised into evidence records; treated as monitoring-only."
 },
 {
 "flag": "timeseries_bucket_inference",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Signal timeseries buckets are conservatively shaped from limited timestamp samples rather than full per-record timestamp allocation."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain if net directional score stays >= +20 and contradiction ratio remains <= 0.15 over the next 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh (<=6h) opposing evidence appears across 2+ independent sources and contradiction ratio rises materially (e.g., >0.25)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if a late-breaking policy/trade/custody signal (<=2h) emerges tied to China policy/customs actions affecting battery raw materials."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to lithium (single-market).",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided in input; counterevidence treated as low.",
 "State_change set to new_bullish with unknown prior state; prior assumed neutral for state machine transition.",
 "Timeseries constructed conservatively from limited timestamp samples (source_ref_sample/newest timestamps) rather than full per-record timestamp allocation."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}