Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-STALE-OVERHANG
  • generated_at: 2026-03-31T00:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-24H-RANGE-001 Gold futures are more likely to trade rangebound over the next 24h because the admitted signal set contains no fresh, gold-specific macro/flow catalysts and is dominated by stale, indirect risk narratives. 58 flat fading 24h false 76
gold B-GOLD-6H-FRAGILE-002 Near-term (6h) direction is fragile/unstable: a small number of new high-quality macro or geopolitical updates could flip gold sentiment quickly because current evidence is stale and indirect. 62 mixed stable 6h false 76

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260331-000000Z-gold-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-24H-RANGE-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures are more likely to trade rangebound (no clear directional trend) over the next 24h because the admitted signal set contains no fresh, gold-specific macro/flow catalysts and is dominated by stale, indirect risk narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity_in_last_72h",
 "stale_geopolitical_risk_context",
 "stale_real_rates_usd_policy_context"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any fresh (<=24h) real-rate or USD shock headlines",
 "Any fresh (<=24h) large ETF/central-bank flow confirmation",
 "Any confirmed escalation/de-escalation event creating a clear safe-haven impulse"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 32,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-6H-FRAGILE-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) direction is fragile/unstable: a small number of new high-quality macro or geopolitical updates could flip gold sentiment quickly because current evidence is stale and indirect.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "staleness_overhang",
 "lack_of_recent_confirmation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Multiple independent fresh records aligning on a single direction (up or down)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 38,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-24H-RANGE-001",
 "B-GOLD-6H-FRAGILE-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 22,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 26,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 4
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-STALE-OVERHANG",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "Most admitted, gold-relevant context is >72h old (latest meaningful timestamps cluster around 2026-03-09), so stale suppression is applied and directional conviction is capped."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-DATA-SPARSITY",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "No fresh (<=72h) gold-specific evidence in the admitted set; direction is suppressed to neutral/mixed per conservative evidence policy."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-FRAGILITY",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Because current state is built on stale/indirect drivers, the signal is sensitive to small amounts of new information (fragility elevated)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "stay_flat until at least 3 independent fresh (<=72h) gold-relevant records support a consistent directional thesis (up or down).",
 "action_label": "stay_flat"
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if fresh (<=24h) geopolitical escalation headlines or rate/USD surprises appear, given elevated fragility from stale context.",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch only if a new opposing-direction cluster forms within <=6h and contradiction ratio rises materially versus prior cycle.",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 2,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'gold'.",
 "Latest gold-relevant evidence in provided corpus clusters around 2026-03-09; as of 2026-03-31 this is >72h stale, triggering stale suppression.",
 "Direction suppressed to neutral/mixed per min_evidence_threshold=3 and require_directional_conviction=true under degraded freshness.",
 "No late-breaking (<=2h) opposing evidence present; kill-switch not triggered."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}