Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: trade_policy_headline_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-03-31T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B1 | Near-term copper futures demand narrative remains net-supportive (electrification/grid + infrastructure capex themes staying dominant in the recent evidence window). | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
| copper | B2 | Over the next 24 hours, directional bias remains mildly-to-moderately positive, with momentum supported by fresh multi-source updates rather than purely stale background narratives. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 66 |
| copper | B3 | Volatility/reversal risk is non-trivial because the dominant drivers are macro/policy narrative channels (headline-sensitive) rather than a single decisive supply shock with clear persistence. | 54 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 51 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260331T150000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper futures demand narrative remains net-supportive (electrification/grid + infrastructure capex themes staying dominant in the recent evidence window).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"inventory_exchange_stocks (indirect; narrative-driven)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Single-source negative VIP signal on trade/supply-chain risk (older; weakly corroborated)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, directional bias remains mildly-to-moderately positive, with momentum supported by fresh multi-source updates rather than purely stale background narratives.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"china_policy (proxy exposure via policy/infrastructure-linked coverage)",
"trade_policy (supportive/active policy backdrop but headline-risk)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Trade-policy whipsaw risk; potential for rapid sentiment reversal if tariff/export-control headlines turn adverse"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Volatility/reversal risk is non-trivial because the dominant drivers are macro/policy narrative channels (headline-sensitive) rather than a single decisive supply shock with clear persistence.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy",
"inventory_exchange_stocks (headline-dependent interpretations)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Low observed counter-evidence density in the freshest window"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 51,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 20,
"B": 3,
"C": 2,
"D": 60,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 4,
"fresh_6_24h": 5,
"fresh_24_72h": 6,
"stale_gt_72h": 1
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "trade_policy_headline_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Policy/tariff/export-control narratives are prominent; reversal risk is driven more by headline sensitivity than by strong on-the-ground counterevidence."
},
{
"flag": "vip_lane_echo_risk",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source and low-diversity; they were not treated as primary directional drivers."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_to_price_link_uncertain",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A large share of admitted evidence is thematic (energy transition/infrastructure) and may translate to price with variable lag."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source demand/infrastructure confirmation persists with low contradiction and no opposing policy shock emerges, maintain watch_long_bias."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing trade-policy signals appear from 2+ independent sources within <=2h (or a clear hard invalidator), shift to reversal_watch / hard_de_risk_watch."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score compresses into [-20,+20] with rising contradiction, prefer stay_flat and treat as rangebound."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 30,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
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"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
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"velocity_score": 2,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
}
}