Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: trade_policy_headline_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-03-31T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Near-term copper futures demand narrative remains net-supportive (electrification/grid + infrastructure capex themes staying dominant in the recent evidence window). 58 up accelerating 6h false 62
copper B2 Over the next 24 hours, directional bias remains mildly-to-moderately positive, with momentum supported by fresh multi-source updates rather than purely stale background narratives. 62 up stable 24h false 66
copper B3 Volatility/reversal risk is non-trivial because the dominant drivers are macro/policy narrative channels (headline-sensitive) rather than a single decisive supply shock with clear persistence. 54 mixed stable 24h false 51

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260331T150000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper futures demand narrative remains net-supportive (electrification/grid + infrastructure capex themes staying dominant in the recent evidence window).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks (indirect; narrative-driven)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Single-source negative VIP signal on trade/supply-chain risk (older; weakly corroborated)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, directional bias remains mildly-to-moderately positive, with momentum supported by fresh multi-source updates rather than purely stale background narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "china_policy (proxy exposure via policy/infrastructure-linked coverage)",
 "trade_policy (supportive/active policy backdrop but headline-risk)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Trade-policy whipsaw risk; potential for rapid sentiment reversal if tariff/export-control headlines turn adverse"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Volatility/reversal risk is non-trivial because the dominant drivers are macro/policy narrative channels (headline-sensitive) rather than a single decisive supply shock with clear persistence.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks (headline-dependent interpretations)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Low observed counter-evidence density in the freshest window"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 51,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 20,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 60,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 4,
 "fresh_6_24h": 5,
 "fresh_24_72h": 6,
 "stale_gt_72h": 1
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "trade_policy_headline_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Policy/tariff/export-control narratives are prominent; reversal risk is driven more by headline sensitivity than by strong on-the-ground counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "vip_lane_echo_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source and low-diversity; they were not treated as primary directional drivers."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_to_price_link_uncertain",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A large share of admitted evidence is thematic (energy transition/infrastructure) and may translate to price with variable lag."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source demand/infrastructure confirmation persists with low contradiction and no opposing policy shock emerges, maintain watch_long_bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing trade-policy signals appear from 2+ independent sources within <=2h (or a clear hard invalidator), shift to reversal_watch / hard_de_risk_watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score compresses into [-20,+20] with rising contradiction, prefer stay_flat and treat as rangebound."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 30,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
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 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
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 "velocity_score": 3,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 }
}