Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: (not provided)
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (RF-001)
- generated_at: 2026-03-31T14:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Near-term coffee futures bias higher as fresh supply/cost disruption narratives (coffee production risk + logistics friction + agricultural input/labour cost pressure) dominate the latest cycle. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Over the next 24h, coffee futures remain skewed upward as demand/consumption expansion narratives provide a floor while supply/cost risks keep upside pressure active. | 65 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260331T140000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures (KC)", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-coffee-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term coffee futures bias higher as fresh supply/cost disruption narratives (coffee production risk + logistics friction + agricultural input/labour cost pressure) dominate the latest cycle.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "coffee production risk signals (supply-side fragility)", "shipping/logistics disruption framing (freight friction)", "input and labour cost pressure spillover (agri cost inflation)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "limited explicit bearish (price-down) counter-signals in admitted set; main risk is narrative over-attribution from broad macro signals" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-002", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Over the next 24h, coffee futures remain skewed upward as demand/consumption expansion narratives provide a floor while supply/cost risks keep upside pressure active.", "probability_pct": 65, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "coffee consumption/retail expansion themes", "persistent supply-chain and cost headwinds" ], "contradicted_by": [ "if late-cycle evidence shifts toward improving crop output / easing logistics, upside thesis weakens quickly" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-coffee-001", "B-coffee-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 119, "B": 8, "C": 6, "D": 237, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "signals_with_newest_evidence_0_6h": 6, "signals_with_newest_evidence_6_24h": 3, "signals_with_newest_evidence_24_72h": 0, "signals_with_newest_evidence_gt_72h": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-001", "market": "coffee", "type": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "note": "Directional thesis uses several cross-commodity/macro cost & logistics narratives; if coffee-specific confirmation fades, conviction should compress." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-002", "market": "coffee", "type": "reversal_watch", "severity": "medium", "note": "Reversal risk is driven more by potential rapid easing of supply/logistics stress than by observed fresh counter-evidence." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain watch for continuation of supply/cost disruption headlines and confirmation from multiple independent sources within the next 6h." }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch: if shipping/logistics narratives intensify (clustered updates) without matching coffee-specific fundamentals, fragility rises." }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Hard de-risk watch: if fresh, credible evidence appears indicating improving crop outlook or rapid logistics normalisation (>=2 independent items within 2h), treat as potential thesis invalidation." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 1, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 9, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly as 'coffee' from flight_plan.target_market_code.", "No explicit contradiction records provided; reversal risk set to medium due to mixed-driver fragility rather than observed opposing evidence acceleration.", "Source tier counts are aggregated from admitted trend evidence bundles and may double-count overlapping records across trends." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }