Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-03-31T15:32:01Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-CRUDE-001 | Geopolitical and maritime-chokepoint disruption risk is sustaining an upside risk premium in Brent in the near-term window. | 62 | up | stable | 6h | false | 70 |
| crude_oil | B-CRUDE-002 | Macro cross-currents (notably USD-driven tightening/risk-off framing) can cap Brent upside and increase pullback risk over the next 24 hours. | 41 | down | stable | 24h | false | 60 |
| crude_oil | B-CRUDE-003 | The current oil risk-premium impulse is headline-sensitive (spike-and-fade prone), so intraday reversal risk is elevated even if the net bias stays upward. | 54 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260331T153201Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-31T15:32:01Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical and maritime-chokepoint disruption risk is sustaining an upside risk premium in Brent in the near-term window.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"maritime chokepoints / Strait of Hormuz risk premium",
"security incidents / escalation headlines",
"shipping route disruption sensitivity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CRUDE-002",
"B-CRUDE-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro cross-currents (notably USD-driven tightening/risk-off framing) can cap Brent upside and increase pullback risk over the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"USD policy / dollar-strength channel",
"macro demand uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CRUDE-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "The current oil risk-premium impulse is headline-sensitive (spike-and-fade prone), so intraday reversal risk is elevated even if the net bias stays upward.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"headline-driven volatility / narrative whipsaw",
"event-risk premium mean reversion"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CRUDE-001",
"B-CRUDE-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 22,
"B": 1,
"C": 0,
"D": 27,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"0_6h_signals": 5,
"6_24h_signals": 6,
"24_72h_signals": 1,
"gt_72h_signals": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CRUDE-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional bias is supported by event-risk headlines that can reverse quickly (spike-and-fade pattern present across multiple admitted trends)."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CRUDE-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "macro_crosscurrents",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "USD/macro-policy framing introduces counter-pressure that can cap upside or trigger pullbacks despite supply-risk premium."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh disruption / escalation items continue to print (or broaden) within the next 6 hours without credible de-escalation signals."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If the headline stream remains concentrated in maritime-security / chokepoint themes (fast cadence), expect wider intraday swings."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If de-escalation headlines arrive or macro tightening/dollar-strength narratives accelerate, watch for risk-premium fade."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If the next cycle shows a sharp drop in fresh evidence count (newsflow fades) while directional score decays toward neutral."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": 3,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
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"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-31T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 68,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_physics v2 fields provided in input; conviction/momentum derived from evidence_bundle authority mix, source breadth, and temporal_profile proxies.",
"No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory supplied; state_change set to new_bullish using a baseline-neutral prior assumption.",
"No explicit contradictory record sets provided (contradiction_record_ids empty across admitted trends); contradiction_ratio kept low but non-zero due to macro cross-currents."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}