Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-30 00:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Uranium futures sentiment remains biased upward over the next 24h due to continued nuclear policy/energy-security support and SMR/innovation headline flow, with minimal opposing evidence inside the admitted corpus. 65 up fading 24h false 52
uranium B-UR-002 Geopolitical/supply-chain risk narratives around nuclear fuel supply continue to contribute a mild upward risk-premium bias in uranium over the next 6h, though near-term momentum is not strongly accelerating. 60 up stable 6h false 52

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "CIS-20260330-000000Z-uranium", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-UR-001", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Uranium futures sentiment remains biased upward over the next 24h due to continued nuclear policy/energy-security support and SMR/innovation headline flow, with minimal opposing evidence inside the admitted corpus.", "probability_pct": 65, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "DOE / regulator policy signal flow (nuclear support framing)", "SMR / nuclear innovation investment narrative (large tech + reactor developers)", "Energy-security framing across multiple jurisdictions" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-002", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Geopolitical/supply-chain risk narratives around nuclear fuel supply continue to contribute a mild upward risk-premium bias in uranium over the next 6h, though near-term momentum is not strongly accelerating.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Geopolitical supply-risk narrative clustering (Russia/Rosatom/Kazatomprom/Cameco-linked headlines)", "Energy-security strategy narratives (Iran/EU/US references in corpus)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-UR-001", "B-UR-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 99, "B": 23, "C": 10, "D": 242, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signals": 2, "fresh_6_24h_signals": 3, "stale_24_72h_signals": 4, "stale_72h_plus_signals": 3 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag": "data_sparsity", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "description": "Short-horizon (6h/24h) inference is driven by a limited set of clearly-timestamped fresh updates; many supporting narratives are older background items." }, { "risk_flag": "stale_overhang", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "description": "A meaningful share of admitted support is >72h old and therefore downweighted; bullish direction persists but momentum is treated as weakening." }, { "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw", "market": "uranium", "severity": "low", "description": "Policy/innovation headlines can spike-and-fade quickly; without fresh follow-through, sentiment strength can decay even if direction remains positive." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias only if the next cycle adds fresh (<=24h) supportive policy/demand/supply-risk records without a contradiction spike." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if contradiction_ratio rises materially (e.g., >0.25) or if multiple new sources introduce downside demand/supply-normalisation signals." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent bearish signals arrive inside 2h (late-breaking window), treat as potential neutralisation/reversal setup." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "action": "hard_de_risk_watch", "trigger_condition": "If thesis_kill_switch becomes true due to late-breaking invalidation, cap conviction until corroboration arrives." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 18, "acceleration_score": 18, "contradiction_ratio": 0.04, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -10, "acceleration_score": -28, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": 12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 20, "acceleration_score": 28, "contradiction_ratio": 0.04, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -28, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 4, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No workflow5A physics provided; used workflow5B proxy fields (evidence_recency_proxy, authority_tier_counts, temporal_profile, consistency_score) for mass/recency estimation.", "No explicit opposing/negative uranium-direction trends were present in the admitted set; actual_counterevidence_score treated as low.", "State-change computed with missing prior state; assumed neutral baseline for state transition labelling (new_bullish).", "Signal timeseries allocation used each admitted trend's evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp hour-bucketing (not per-record timestamps); bucket counts and shapes are conservative." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }