Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: directional_ambiguity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-30T20:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SI-24H-01 | Over the next 24h, silver futures are more likely to trade range-bound with a mild upside bias than to trend strongly, as silver-specific narratives (ETP/ETF attention + mining/supply chatter) are present but not decisively directional. | 55 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 61 |
| silver | B-SI-6H-01 | Over the next 6h, silver futures sentiment is more likely to fade back toward neutral than to extend a fresh impulse, because the latest signal bursts are sparse and not continuously reinforced hour-to-hour. | 53 | flat | fading | 6h | false | 61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-2026-03-30T20:00:00Z-silver-001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 52, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-SI-24H-01", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver futures are more likely to trade range-bound with a mild upside bias than to trend strongly, as silver-specific narratives (ETP/ETF attention + mining/supply chatter) are present but not decisively directional.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Silver ETP/ETF attention (silver-linked trusts) present but not accelerating", "Ongoing mining/supply/exploration narrative flow with unclear price-direction sign" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Supply/exploration narratives can be interpreted as future supply expansion (potentially bearish) vs supply constraint risk (potentially bullish)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-SI-6H-01", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 6h, silver futures sentiment is more likely to fade back toward neutral than to extend a fresh impulse, because the latest signal bursts are sparse and not continuously reinforced hour-to-hour.", "probability_pct": 53, "direction": "flat", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Recent activity appears clustered (few buckets) rather than sustained", "Limited explicit counterevidence, but also limited explicit directional catalysts" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 62, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-SI-24H-01", "B-SI-6H-01" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 18, "B": 1, "C": 3, "D": 30, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 8, "stale_24_72h": 3, "stale_gt_72h": 20 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "directional_ambiguity", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "details": "Admitted silver-specific signals are present, but several are inherently ambiguous for price direction (supply/exploration and mining narratives)." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "details": "Several supporting narratives originated earlier in the month; despite some recent mentions, the broader context shows signs of fade vs sustained acceleration." }, { "flag": "data_shape_clustered", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "details": "Signal activity appears clustered into a small number of recent time buckets rather than continuous reinforcement." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Maintain until directional_score_signed would clear +/-20 with fresh, multi-bucket reinforcement and low contradiction." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh macro/geopolitical headlines begin mapping directly into silver-specific evidence (multiple independent records) within a 2\u20136h window." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if a fresh opposite-direction cluster appears (>=2 independent silver-mapped records within 2h) causing a contradiction spike." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Upgrade only if ETF/physical demand flow narratives turn sustained (multiple buckets) without simultaneous supply-expansion framing." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "silver" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 14, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": -12, "acceleration_score": -26, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -10, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 22, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": 12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 16, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -14, "acceleration_score": -30, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -14, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 22, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 28, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 14, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } } }