- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: headline_volatility_geopolitics (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-30T23:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term NG futures have an upside skew driven by elevated LNG export disruption / supply-security risk centered on Qatar-linked infrastructure and broader geopolitics. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
62 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven range expansion) because the dominant driver set is geopolitical / operational risk rather than steady demand/storage fundamentals. |
70 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
62 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260330T233000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T23:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term NG futures have an upside skew driven by elevated LNG export disruption / supply-security risk centered on Qatar-linked infrastructure and broader geopolitics.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"production_outages",
"energy_geopolitics"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven range expansion) because the dominant driver set is geopolitical / operational risk rather than steady demand/storage fundamentals.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 94,
"B": 3,
"C": 0,
"D": 133,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 3,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 10,
"fresh_24_72h_est": 18,
"stale_gt_72h_est": 60,
"estimation_basis": "trend_evidence_recency_proxy_only"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_id": "RF-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "headline_volatility_geopolitics",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Driver set dominated by geopolitical / supply-disruption narratives; higher whipsaw risk vs fundamentals-driven regimes."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several admitted themes span >72h; conviction is supported by fresh updates but background persistence increases narrative inertia risk."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "physics_missing_bucket_estimation",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Per-record physics/timestamps not provided to 6B; signal_timeseries buckets are conservative proxy estimates."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh confirmation of LNG/pipeline disruption (2+ independent sources within 6h) without matching de-escalation signals."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "New geopolitics/outage headline cluster inside 2h window (multi-source) implying sudden supply tightness."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Rapid de-escalation / outage resolution headlines (2+ sources) coupled with falling recency-weighted heat for disruption themes."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh directional evidence count drops to near-zero for 12h and signals revert to background-only."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Directional mapping is impact-based (supply risk -> bullish price bias), not raw narrative sentiment.",
"No explicit opposing (bearish) fundamentals signal set was present in admitted corpus; reversal risk is driven by event-driven whipsaw potential rather than counterevidence mass."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}