• subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: headline_volatility_geopolitics (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-30T23:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term NG futures have an upside skew driven by elevated LNG export disruption / supply-security risk centered on Qatar-linked infrastructure and broader geopolitics. 62 up accelerating 24h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-002 Volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven range expansion) because the dominant driver set is geopolitical / operational risk rather than steady demand/storage fundamentals. 70 mixed stable 6h false 62
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260330T233000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T23:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term NG futures have an upside skew driven by elevated LNG export disruption / supply-security risk centered on Qatar-linked infrastructure and broader geopolitics.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lng_export_flows",
 "pipeline_infrastructure",
 "production_outages",
 "energy_geopolitics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated (headline-driven range expansion) because the dominant driver set is geopolitical / operational risk rather than steady demand/storage fundamentals.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "pipeline_infrastructure",
 "lng_export_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 94,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 133,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 10,
 "fresh_24_72h_est": 18,
 "stale_gt_72h_est": 60,
 "estimation_basis": "trend_evidence_recency_proxy_only"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "headline_volatility_geopolitics",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Driver set dominated by geopolitical / supply-disruption narratives; higher whipsaw risk vs fundamentals-driven regimes."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several admitted themes span >72h; conviction is supported by fresh updates but background persistence increases narrative inertia risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "flag": "physics_missing_bucket_estimation",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Per-record physics/timestamps not provided to 6B; signal_timeseries buckets are conservative proxy estimates."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh confirmation of LNG/pipeline disruption (2+ independent sources within 6h) without matching de-escalation signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "New geopolitics/outage headline cluster inside 2h window (multi-source) implying sudden supply tightness."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Rapid de-escalation / outage resolution headlines (2+ sources) coupled with falling recency-weighted heat for disruption themes."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh directional evidence count drops to near-zero for 12h and signals revert to background-only."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:30:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:30:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:30:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:30:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
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 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:30:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:30:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:30:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T07:30:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T08:30:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T12:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T13:30:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Directional mapping is impact-based (supply risk -> bullish price bias), not raw narrative sentiment.",
 "No explicit opposing (bearish) fundamentals signal set was present in admitted corpus; reversal risk is driven by event-driven whipsaw potential rather than counterevidence mass."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}