Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: natural_gas
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: driver_coverage_sparsity
- generated_at: 2026-03-30T07:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Near-term LNG supply/shipping disruption risk is elevated (with Qatar-linked flow sensitivity), skewing Henry Hub natural gas futures to the upside over the next 24h. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Operational outage/disruption narratives (pipeline / export chain) remain a dominant catalyst theme, sustaining a positive risk-premium bias in the next 6–24h window. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_natural_gas_2026-03-30T07:05:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T07:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term LNG supply/shipping disruption risk is elevated (with Qatar-linked flow sensitivity), skewing Henry Hub natural gas futures to the upside over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows",
"energy_geopolitics",
"pipeline_infrastructure"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Operational outage/disruption narratives (pipeline / export chain) remain a dominant catalyst theme, sustaining a positive risk-premium bias in the next 6\u201324h window.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"production_outages",
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 71,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 127,
"B": 11,
"C": 2,
"D": 179,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 4,
"fresh_6_24h": 5,
"stale_24_72h": 3,
"stale_gt_72h": 3
},
"regime_state": "tightening"
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
"label": "driver_coverage_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Current admitted corpus is dominated by geopolitics/LNG disruption themes; weaker direct coverage of storage levels and seasonal weather demand increases model fragility for short-horizon direction."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
"label": "geopolitical_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Geopolitical escalation/de-escalation headlines can reverse quickly; contradiction ratio is currently low, but regime remains event-driven."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
"label": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Some supporting narratives originate >72h ago and are treated as background; fresh confirmation exists, but persistence risk remains."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Upside bias remains valid while fresh LNG disruption / pipeline outage signals continue to refresh and no comparable fresh counter-evidence appears."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Treat as volatility-sensitive while geopolitics + LNG flow risks dominate; monitor for abrupt de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if fresh counter-evidence emerges (e.g., credible resolution / restoration signals) within a 2\u20136h window."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T16:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T17:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T17:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T18:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T06:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: natural_gas.",
"No explicit counter-direction evidence admitted; reversal_risk set to medium primarily due to event-driven geopolitics and driver coverage sparsity (weather/storage under-represented).",
"Timeseries derived from admitted trend/vip/risk timestamps and recency proxies available in the input; bucket values are conservative in sparse hours."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}