Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: indirect_price_linkage (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-30T19:35:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-001 Near-term lithium futures have an upside bias as EV adoption + battery manufacturing/capacity expansion narratives remain broadly supportive of lithium demand. 62 up stable 6h false 44
lithium B-lithium-002 Over the next 24 hours, lithium futures direction is more likely up than down, but upside may be capped by mixed supply/regulatory headlines (e.g., Chile policy and producer activity) and the indirect nature of demand headlines to immediate futures pricing. 58 up fading 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260330T193500Z-lithium", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T19:35:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-lithium-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term lithium futures have an upside bias as EV adoption + battery manufacturing/capacity expansion narratives remain broadly supportive of lithium demand.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption momentum (BYD/Tesla and broader OEM electrification narratives)", "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion (multiple large players referenced)", "Battery chemistry advancements increasing strategic focus on battery metals" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, lithium futures direction is more likely up than down, but upside may be capped by mixed supply/regulatory headlines (e.g., Chile policy and producer activity) and the indirect nature of demand headlines to immediate futures pricing.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Persistent demand-side macro narrative (EV policy + adoption)", "Battery supply chain investment cadence", "Policy/regulatory attention around lithium jurisdictions (Chile)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 71, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-lithium-001", "B-lithium-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 138, "B": 14, "C": 28, "D": 223, "U": 0, "note": "Proxy-summed from admitted trend bundles; may double-count shared evidence across trends." }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signals": 3, "fresh_6_24h_signals": 6, "fresh_24_72h_signals": 2, "stale_gt_72h_signals": 1 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "indirect_price_linkage", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A large share of admitted evidence is demand/capex narrative (EV/battery buildout) rather than direct lithium spot/futures market microstructure signals; this raises fragility despite bullish directional mass." }, { "flag": "data_timestamp_anomaly", "market": "lithium", "severity": "low", "detail": "One risk-anomaly item appears future-dated vs snapshot time (found at 2026-03-30T23:00:54Z while snapshot is 2026-03-30T19:35:00Z); excluded from late-breaking invalidation logic." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh supportive EV/battery capacity items continue printing without fresh opposing supply-shock evidence in the last 6 hours." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Elevate attention if supply/regulatory headlines (Chile / major producers) accelerate inside 0\u20136h and begin contradicting the demand-led thesis." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Activate if two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) bearish lithium-specific signals appear (pricing cuts, inventory glut, supply disruption resolution) creating a contradiction spike." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No explicit opposing/contradictory lithium-direction signals were provided in the admitted corpus (contradictions=[]).", "State-change computed with unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory or prior market_state_table provided); state_change left as 'unchanged'." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }