Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: supply_vs_demand_driver_ambiguity
  • generated_at: 2026-03-30T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Over the next 24h, lithium futures are more likely to remain range-bound than to establish a clean up/down trend, because demand-supportive EV/battery newsflow is balanced by supply-expansion/extraction narratives. 58 mixed stable 24h false 62
lithium B-LI-002 Near-term upside follow-through in lithium futures is capped by active supply-side narrative mass (extraction capacity, DLE/processing improvements), limiting bullish continuation unless a clear demand shock emerges. 56 flat stable 24h false 62
lithium B-LI-003 In the next 6h, lithium futures newsflow is slightly demand-supportive (EV adoption + battery capacity themes), but not strong enough to overcome mixed drivers into a high-conviction directional move. 53 up fading 6h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260330T120000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures are more likely to remain range-bound than to establish a clean up/down trend, because demand-supportive EV/battery newsflow is balanced by supply-expansion/extraction narratives.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption / policy support newsflow (demand-supportive)", "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion themes (demand-supportive)", "Extraction / direct-lithium-extraction / mining supply narratives (supply-expansion headwind)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-002" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term upside follow-through in lithium futures is capped by active supply-side narrative mass (extraction capacity, DLE/processing improvements), limiting bullish continuation unless a clear demand shock emerges.", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "flat", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Lithium extraction / supply chain expansion coverage", "Industrial transformation / refining capacity narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 49, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-003", "market": "lithium", "claim": "In the next 6h, lithium futures newsflow is slightly demand-supportive (EV adoption + battery capacity themes), but not strong enough to overcome mixed drivers into a high-conviction directional move.", "probability_pct": 53, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption headlines (BYD/Tesla/auto sector)", "Battery chemistry/technology momentum (CATL and broader battery innovation)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Supply expansion narratives remain active" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-001", "B-LI-002", "B-LI-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 152, "B": 10, "C": 23, "D": 225, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signals": 2, "fresh_6_24h_signals": 9, "fresh_24_72h_signals": 0, "stale_gt_72h_signals": 0, "notes": "Counts are based on latest timestamps exposed in admitted trend/risk objects (not full per-record timestamps)." } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_id": "RF-LI-AMBIGUITY-001", "market": "lithium", "level": "medium", "label": "supply_vs_demand_driver_ambiguity", "description": "Demand-supportive EV/battery narratives coexist with supply-expansion/extraction narratives, producing mixed directional inference." }, { "risk_id": "RF-LI-FRESHNESS-001", "market": "lithium", "level": "medium", "label": "recentness_concentration", "description": "Directional inference is supported by broad 30d coverage, but only a small subset of signals are very fresh (<=6h), increasing short-horizon fragility." }, { "risk_id": "RF-LI-AUTH-001", "market": "lithium", "level": "medium", "label": "authority_skew_low_tier_share", "description": "Authority confirmation exists (Tier-A anchors present) but a large share of corpus is lower-tier, which can increase narrative noise." }, { "risk_id": "RF-LI-OPS-001", "market": "lithium", "level": "low", "label": "operational_surge_seed_risk", "description": "A short-horizon operational risk anomaly was detected (seed-level, limited materialised evidence). Monitor for corroboration." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action": "stay_flat", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain until a clean directional catalyst emerges (net signed signal >= |20| with rising freshness in <=6h window)." }, { "action": "volatility_watch", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate if contradiction ratio rises materially or if a late-breaking opposing cluster appears within a 2h window." }, { "action": "reversal_watch", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Escalate only if a fresh (<=2h) multi-source opposing burst flips the signed score across the ±120 boundary." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -6, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 53, "net_sentiment_score": -6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -4, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 52, "net_sentiment_score": -4, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -2, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 51, "net_sentiment_score": -2, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 50, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 49, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 48, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 47, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 18, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly to lithium (single-market).", "No explicit price/curve/positioning data provided; direction is inferred from mixed narrative drivers only.", "One thin/echo-risk trend (evidence_count<3) was excluded from admission to reduce noise.", "VIP outliers are mostly single-source and treated as weak/background; they did not determine direction.", "No late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggered (no fresh <=2h multi-source opposing cluster present).", "State change set to 'unchanged' due to missing reliable prior state memory in provided inputs (unknown_prior)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }