Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (severity: high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-30T23:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-001 Gold futures signal is neutral/mixed because admitted gold-linked evidence is sparse and predominantly stale (>72h), suppressing directional conviction. 56 mixed fading 24h false 78
gold B-002 Residual (stale) geopolitics-and-trade narrative linked to gold/GLD may create intermittent upside bias, but lacks fresh corroboration in the last 72 hours. 52 up fading 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260330T233000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T23:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures signal is neutral/mixed because admitted gold-linked evidence is sparse and predominantly stale (>72h), suppressing directional conviction.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "evidence_sparsity_in_gold_linked_items",
 "stale_context_overhang"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Residual (stale) geopolitics-and-trade narrative linked to gold/GLD may create intermittent upside bias, but lacks fresh corroboration in the last 72 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk_background",
 "gold_trade_operational_noise",
 "etf_flow_proxy(GLD)_weak_signal"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "no_fresh_gold_specific_confirmation"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 24,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 8,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 22,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-001",
 "B-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 0,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 1
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "high",
 "notes": "Gold-mapped admitted evidence below requested min_evidence_threshold=3 after recency weighting."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "high",
 "notes": "Most gold-linked items in the admitted set are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (>72h), triggering stale suppression."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Thin signal surface implies higher susceptibility to abrupt sentiment flips on new macro/geopolitical prints."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=24h) gold-specific macro evidence reaches >=3 independent records with coherent direction and low contradiction, reclassify from neutral_mixed."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a late-breaking (<=2h) high-trust gold-linked invalidator appears (e.g., clear real-rate shock signal mapped to gold), enable kill-switch and raise reversal_risk."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Gold-mapped evidence primarily from VIP outliers (gold trade / GLD proxy); both are older than 72 hours and downweighted.",
 "No gold-mapped trend objects admitted under strict alias-based market mapping; non-gold geopolitical/macro trends were treated as unmapped for this single-market run.",
 "State_change set to 'unchanged' due to unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}