Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (severity: high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-30T23:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-001 |
Gold futures signal is neutral/mixed because admitted gold-linked evidence is sparse and predominantly stale (>72h), suppressing directional conviction. |
56 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
78 |
| gold |
B-002 |
Residual (stale) geopolitics-and-trade narrative linked to gold/GLD may create intermittent upside bias, but lacks fresh corroboration in the last 72 hours. |
52 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260330T233000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T23:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures signal is neutral/mixed because admitted gold-linked evidence is sparse and predominantly stale (>72h), suppressing directional conviction.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"evidence_sparsity_in_gold_linked_items",
"stale_context_overhang"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Residual (stale) geopolitics-and-trade narrative linked to gold/GLD may create intermittent upside bias, but lacks fresh corroboration in the last 72 hours.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk_background",
"gold_trade_operational_noise",
"etf_flow_proxy(GLD)_weak_signal"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"no_fresh_gold_specific_confirmation"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 24,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 8,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 22,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-001",
"B-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 0,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 1
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 2
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "high",
"notes": "Gold-mapped admitted evidence below requested min_evidence_threshold=3 after recency weighting."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "high",
"notes": "Most gold-linked items in the admitted set are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (>72h), triggering stale suppression."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Thin signal surface implies higher susceptibility to abrupt sentiment flips on new macro/geopolitical prints."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=24h) gold-specific macro evidence reaches >=3 independent records with coherent direction and low contradiction, reclassify from neutral_mixed."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a late-breaking (<=2h) high-trust gold-linked invalidator appears (e.g., clear real-rate shock signal mapped to gold), enable kill-switch and raise reversal_risk."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 0,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Gold-mapped evidence primarily from VIP outliers (gold trade / GLD proxy); both are older than 72 hours and downweighted.",
"No gold-mapped trend objects admitted under strict alias-based market mapping; non-gold geopolitical/macro trends were treated as unmapped for this single-market run.",
"State_change set to 'unchanged' due to unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory provided)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}