Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-30 08:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-001 In the next 24h, gold futures are more likely to trade mixed-to-firm than decisively lower, conditional on any renewed escalation headlines; however, the current supporting geopolitical-risk evidence set in this run is predominantly stale. 55 mixed fading 24h false 78
gold B-gold-002 Gold’s immediate directional edge is weak over the next 6h because the run lacks fresh (<=72h) corroboration across key driver arenas (USD strength, real rates, central-bank/ETF flows), making price response highly headline-dependent. 62 flat stable 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-gold-20260330T080000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "In the next 24h, gold futures are more likely to trade mixed-to-firm than decisively lower, conditional on any renewed escalation headlines; however, the current supporting geopolitical-risk evidence set in this run is predominantly stale.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk (stale-dominant corpus)",
 "policy/real-rates narrative linkage (stale-dominant corpus)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold\u2019s immediate directional edge is weak over the next 6h because the run lacks fresh (<=72h) corroboration across key driver arenas (USD strength, real rates, central-bank/ETF flows), making price response highly headline-dependent.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity_in_fresh_window",
 "stale_context_overhang"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 35,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-001",
 "B-gold-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 65,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 111,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 1,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 5
 },
 "directional_score_signed_0_to_100": 12,
 "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 8,
 "reversal_triggered": false,
 "reversal_evidence_summary": [
 "No admitted fresh (<=24h) opposing gold-direction evidence; reversal risk elevated primarily by fragility/data-sparsity rather than a confirmed direction flip."
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Most directionally-relevant geopolitical and policy signals in the admitted set cluster around 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; recency downweight applied."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_fresh_window",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Fresh evidence (<=24h) is below the client min_evidence_threshold=3 for gold-specific drivers; direction therefore suppressed to neutral_mixed."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Headline-driven geopolitical risk narratives can re-accelerate quickly; current run shows fragile state due to lack of fresh corroboration."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Stay flat while fresh (<=72h) multi-source confirmation remains below threshold across gold driver arenas."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if any new high-authority escalation/de-escalation headline cluster appears within a 2\\u20136h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if fresh (<=24h) counter-evidence emerges (e.g., broad USD-strength/real-yield rise signals) and contradiction ratio increases."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Watch long bias only if fresh geopolitical escalation evidence becomes multi-source (>=3 independent records) and is not offset by fresh USD/real-rate headwinds."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 8,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 4,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to gold; analysis constrained to single-market output.",
 "Admitted signals are dominated by stale (older than 72h) geopolitical-risk and policy narratives (2026-03-04..2026-03-09), so stale suppression was applied.",
 "Fresh-window evidence (<=24h) is below client min_evidence_threshold=3 for gold-specific drivers; directional output therefore remains neutral_mixed.",
 "Unmapped/ignored items include cross-asset VIP tickers not credibly attributable to gold direction in this run."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}