Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: time_horizon_mismatch (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-30T19:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-COPPER-01 Near-term narrative flow remains demand-supportive (grid modernisation, infrastructure buildout, energy-transition capex), biasing copper futures upward over the next 6–24 hours. 63 up accelerating 24h false 54
copper B-COPPER-02 Supply-side and project/regulatory dynamics maintain an upside-risk skew (supply tightness premium risk) rather than a clear downside impulse. 58 up stable 24h false 54
copper B-COPPER-03 Trade-policy signalling increases volatility risk; direction remains net-positive but susceptible to fast sentiment swings. 55 mixed accelerating 6h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_20260330T190000Z_copper_6B",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COPPER-01",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term narrative flow remains demand-supportive (grid modernisation, infrastructure buildout, energy-transition capex), biasing copper futures upward over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks (risk of tightness narrative)",
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy (policy-linked infrastructure/energy buildout framing)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COPPER-02",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side and project/regulatory dynamics maintain an upside-risk skew (supply tightness premium risk) rather than a clear downside impulse.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "trade_policy",
 "supply_chain / logistics (secondary)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COPPER-03",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy signalling increases volatility risk; direction remains net-positive but susceptible to fast sentiment swings.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-COPPER-01",
 "B-COPPER-02",
 "B-COPPER-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 144,
 "B": 15,
 "C": 7,
 "D": 223,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 3,
 "stale_over_72h_signal_count": 6,
 "notes": "Fresh count approximated from newest evidence timestamps present in admitted trend bundles; many supporting narratives are longer-horizon/slow-burn."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "flag": "time_horizon_mismatch",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Most admitted drivers are structural (energy transition / infrastructure) and can be less reliable for 6h price direction despite strong directional mass."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "flag": "data_sparsity_recent_window",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Last-24h evidence is clustered in a few timestamp bursts; between-bucket gaps increase fragility/whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Trade-policy narratives can flip quickly; no opposing evidence is present in-corpus, but exogenous headline risk remains."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain if fresh supportive demand/supply-tightness signals persist without credible opposing evidence in the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if trade-policy signalling accelerates (multiple independent records within a 2h window) or contradiction ratio rises materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Activate if fresh opposing evidence appears (>=2 independent opposing records <=2h) indicating demand shock, inventory build, or supply relief."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53.6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47.6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53.6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47.6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54.2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47.2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54.2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47.2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54.2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47.2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54.8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46.8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66.8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38.8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58.4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44.4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -14,
 "acceleration_score": -32,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57.2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45.2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57.2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45.2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57.8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44.8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64.4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40.4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60.8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42.8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65.6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39.6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -14,
 "acceleration_score": -34,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63.2,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41.2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64.4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40.4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72.8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34.8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 14,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit bearish/counter-evidence objects were present in the admitted corpus; reversal sentinel not triggered.",
 "Direction derived from recency-weighted clustering of demand-supportive and supply-tightness narratives mapped to copper; short-horizon translation risk remains."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}