Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: time_horizon_mismatch (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-30T19:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-COPPER-01 | Near-term narrative flow remains demand-supportive (grid modernisation, infrastructure buildout, energy-transition capex), biasing copper futures upward over the next 6–24 hours. | 63 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 54 |
| copper | B-COPPER-02 | Supply-side and project/regulatory dynamics maintain an upside-risk skew (supply tightness premium risk) rather than a clear downside impulse. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 54 |
| copper | B-COPPER-03 | Trade-policy signalling increases volatility risk; direction remains net-positive but susceptible to fast sentiment swings. | 55 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_20260330T190000Z_copper_6B",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COPPER-01",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term narrative flow remains demand-supportive (grid modernisation, infrastructure buildout, energy-transition capex), biasing copper futures upward over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"inventory_exchange_stocks (risk of tightness narrative)",
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy (policy-linked infrastructure/energy buildout framing)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COPPER-02",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-side and project/regulatory dynamics maintain an upside-risk skew (supply tightness premium risk) rather than a clear downside impulse.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"trade_policy",
"supply_chain / logistics (secondary)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COPPER-03",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy signalling increases volatility risk; direction remains net-positive but susceptible to fast sentiment swings.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COPPER-01",
"B-COPPER-02",
"B-COPPER-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 144,
"B": 15,
"C": 7,
"D": 223,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 3,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 3,
"stale_over_72h_signal_count": 6,
"notes": "Fresh count approximated from newest evidence timestamps present in admitted trend bundles; many supporting narratives are longer-horizon/slow-burn."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "time_horizon_mismatch",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Most admitted drivers are structural (energy transition / infrastructure) and can be less reliable for 6h price direction despite strong directional mass."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "data_sparsity_recent_window",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Last-24h evidence is clustered in a few timestamp bursts; between-bucket gaps increase fragility/whipsaw risk."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Trade-policy narratives can flip quickly; no opposing evidence is present in-corpus, but exogenous headline risk remains."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain if fresh supportive demand/supply-tightness signals persist without credible opposing evidence in the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if trade-policy signalling accelerates (multiple independent records within a 2h window) or contradiction ratio rises materially."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Activate if fresh opposing evidence appears (>=2 independent opposing records <=2h) indicating demand shock, inventory build, or supply relief."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47.6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47.6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47.2,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47.2,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47.2,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46.8,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66.8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38.8,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58.4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44.4,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -14,
"acceleration_score": -32,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45.2,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45.2,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57.8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44.8,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64.4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40.4,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60.8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42.8,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39.6,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -14,
"acceleration_score": -34,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63.2,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41.2,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64.4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40.4,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72.8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34.8,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 14,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit bearish/counter-evidence objects were present in the admitted corpus; reversal sentinel not triggered.",
"Direction derived from recency-weighted clustering of demand-supportive and supply-tightness narratives mapped to copper; short-horizon translation risk remains."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}