Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_mixed_causality
- generated_at: 2026-03-30T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-01 | Coffee futures face net upward pressure over the next 6–24 hours driven by supply/cost/logistics risk signals outweighing easing narratives. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
| coffee | B-coffee-02 | A non-trivial portion of recent signals implies stabilisation/normalisation risk (policy/regulatory/sector improvements), which could cap near-term upside and increase whipsaw probability. | 38 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_coffee_2026-03-30T23:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures (KC)", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-coffee-01", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Coffee futures face net upward pressure over the next 6\u201324 hours driven by supply/cost/logistics risk signals outweighing easing narratives.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "origin_supply", "shipping_freight", "labour_costs", "weather_disruptions" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-02" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-02", "market": "coffee", "claim": "A non-trivial portion of recent signals implies stabilisation/normalisation risk (policy/regulatory/sector improvements), which could cap near-term upside and increase whipsaw probability.", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "regulatory_policy", "consumption_trends" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-01" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 49, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-coffee-01", "B-coffee-02" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 70, "B": 4, "C": 8, "D": 180, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 3, "fresh_6_24h": 5, "stale_24_72h": 2, "stale_gt_72h": 2 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "contradiction_mixed_causality", "market": "coffee", "level": "medium", "details": "Signals are plentiful and fresh, but many are cross-domain (cost/logistics/policy) and not all map cleanly to direct price-direction; increases whipsaw risk." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw", "market": "coffee", "level": "medium", "details": "Late-surge clusters coexist with spike-and-fade clusters, implying sensitivity to incremental updates over the next 6\u201324h." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) supply/cost/logistics disruption items arrive without matching fresh easing counterevidence." }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises (fresh opposing records appear across 2+ independent sources inside ~2h)." }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a late-breaking, high-trust easing/normalisation update arrives and is corroborated by a second independent record within 2h." }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If directional score falls back into the neutral band (|score| < 20) while fragility remains elevated (>60)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": -10, "acceleration_score": -25, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 25, "acceleration_score": 15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -30, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": -10, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -11, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.", "Directional mapping uses driver-arenas (origin_supply, shipping_freight, labour_costs, weather_disruptions) because many admitted items are cross-domain rather than explicit price-direction statements.", "Signal timeseries is conservatively bucketed using available trend peak-bucket/recency metadata (no per-record tick timestamps present in this 6B input).", "Prior state not provided; state_change computed assuming neutral prior (unknown_prior->neutral) for transition labeling." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }