Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-30T09:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-6h-001 | Near-term coffee futures price pressure is skewed upward as supply-chain/logistics risk + higher cost narratives outweigh supply-improvement/plant-health signals in the latest window. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 42 |
| coffee | B-coffee-24h-001 | Over the next 24h, coffee futures remain biased upward but with elevated fragility due to mixed supply narratives and recent post-spike cooling in signal intensity. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 42 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_coffee_20260330T090000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-6h-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures price pressure is skewed upward as supply-chain/logistics risk + higher cost narratives outweigh supply-improvement/plant-health signals in the latest window.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight: trade flow disruption / logistics challenges",
"origin_supply: production risk + cost pressure narratives",
"labour_costs: cost-factor and farmer-support stress framing",
"consumption_trends: supportive demand/consumer behaviour themes (secondary)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"supply-side improvement / plant-health framing increasing potential supply"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, coffee futures remain biased upward but with elevated fragility due to mixed supply narratives and recent post-spike cooling in signal intensity.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply: ongoing production/cost uncertainty",
"shipping_freight: persistent freight disruption narrative",
"weather_disruptions: climate disruption risk mentions in coffee-adjacent feeds"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"improving crop/plant health themes implying easing supply constraints",
"possible narrative whipsaw from macro/logistics headlines not coffee-specific"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-6h-001",
"B-coffee-24h-001"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 197,
"B": 2,
"C": 5,
"D": 345,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 3,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 8,
"stale_24_72h_est": 9,
"stale_gt_72h_est": 6
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A meaningful share of supporting themes have >72h roots; conviction is supported by freshness but stale background still contributes."
},
{
"flag": "mixed_supply_signals",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Plant-health / supply-improvement theme provides real counter-evidence versus disruption/cost narratives."
},
{
"flag": "post_spike_cooling",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional score peaked in the last several hours then cooled; momentum weakening raises reversal sensitivity."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh disruption/cost evidence continues (>=2 independent items within next 6h) while counter-evidence does not increase."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If crop/plant-health or supply-recovery signals accelerate (fresh opposing evidence <=6h) and contradiction ratio rises above ~0.35."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If logistics/shipping narratives produce rapid intraday sentiment swings (directional score delta >= 20 within 2-3 hourly buckets)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 37,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 92,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 6,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change computed using unknown_prior -> treated as new_bullish.",
"Momentum marked weakening due to post-peak cooling and stale-suppression being active, despite bullish dominance."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}