Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-30T09:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-6h-001 Near-term coffee futures price pressure is skewed upward as supply-chain/logistics risk + higher cost narratives outweigh supply-improvement/plant-health signals in the latest window. 62 up accelerating 6h false 42
coffee B-coffee-24h-001 Over the next 24h, coffee futures remain biased upward but with elevated fragility due to mixed supply narratives and recent post-spike cooling in signal intensity. 58 up stable 24h false 42

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_coffee_20260330T090000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-6h-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures price pressure is skewed upward as supply-chain/logistics risk + higher cost narratives outweigh supply-improvement/plant-health signals in the latest window.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight: trade flow disruption / logistics challenges",
 "origin_supply: production risk + cost pressure narratives",
 "labour_costs: cost-factor and farmer-support stress framing",
 "consumption_trends: supportive demand/consumer behaviour themes (secondary)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "supply-side improvement / plant-health framing increasing potential supply"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-24h-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, coffee futures remain biased upward but with elevated fragility due to mixed supply narratives and recent post-spike cooling in signal intensity.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply: ongoing production/cost uncertainty",
 "shipping_freight: persistent freight disruption narrative",
 "weather_disruptions: climate disruption risk mentions in coffee-adjacent feeds"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "improving crop/plant health themes implying easing supply constraints",
 "possible narrative whipsaw from macro/logistics headlines not coffee-specific"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-6h-001",
 "B-coffee-24h-001"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 197,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 5,
 "D": 345,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 8,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 9,
 "stale_gt_72h_est": 6
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A meaningful share of supporting themes have >72h roots; conviction is supported by freshness but stale background still contributes."
 },
 {
 "flag": "mixed_supply_signals",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Plant-health / supply-improvement theme provides real counter-evidence versus disruption/cost narratives."
 },
 {
 "flag": "post_spike_cooling",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional score peaked in the last several hours then cooled; momentum weakening raises reversal sensitivity."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh disruption/cost evidence continues (>=2 independent items within next 6h) while counter-evidence does not increase."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If crop/plant-health or supply-recovery signals accelerate (fresh opposing evidence <=6h) and contradiction ratio rises above ~0.35."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If logistics/shipping narratives produce rapid intraday sentiment swings (directional score delta >= 20 within 2-3 hourly buckets)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 37,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 92,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 88,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 6,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change computed using unknown_prior -> treated as new_bullish.",
 "Momentum marked weakening due to post-peak cooling and stale-suppression being active, despite bullish dominance."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}