- Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-03-30 07:05 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
- Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-001 |
Brent-linked crude oil futures retain an upside (risk-premium) bias over the next 6 hours due to elevated Gulf/Hormuz security disruption narratives. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
61 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-002 |
Over the next 24 hours, dominant signals support Brent staying supported vs recent baseline unless material de-escalation appears. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
61 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-003 |
Downside/pullback risk rises if macro-demand stress broadens and evidence shifts from supply disruption to demand contraction within 24h. |
42 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
61 |
- Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260330T070500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T07:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Brent-linked crude oil futures retain an upside (risk-premium) bias over the next 6 hours due to elevated Gulf/Hormuz security disruption narratives dominating the freshest corpus.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical escalation / conflict headlines clustered around Iran-US and Gulf security",
"Maritime chokepoint risk (Strait of Hormuz) featuring prominently in recent high-heat clusters",
"Broad multi-source reinforcement (high unique-source counts across multiple admitted trends)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Refinery outage / operational disruption signals that can reduce near-term crude runs (demand-side pressure)",
"Macro risk-off / recession-tilted singletons (thin but present)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the dominant signal set supports Brent crude staying supported (higher vs recent baseline) unless a material de-escalation counter-narrative appears in the fresh window.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Sustained multi-trend overlap on geopolitics + chokepoints",
"Low explicit contradiction inside admitted trends (consistency scores high; contradiction lists empty)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Demand-destruction / macro headwind narratives (currently thinner and less corroborated)",
"Operational refinery outages reducing crude throughput (low-evidence but very recent)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Downside / pullback risk rises if macro-demand stress signals broaden and fresh evidence shifts from 'supply disruption' to 'demand contraction' within the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Thin but present macro-risk singletons (risk-off framing)",
"Refinery outage risk can transiently reduce crude demand (runs)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Current dominant corpus remains geopolitically supply-risk weighted",
"Authority-tier coverage still largely aligned with disruption framing"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 86,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude_oil-001",
"B-crude_oil-002",
"B-crude_oil-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 68,
"B": 2,
"C": 0,
"D": 74,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_signals_0_6h": 8,
"fresh_signals_6_24h": 3,
"fresh_signals_24_72h": 0,
"fresh_signals_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "event_driven_volatility",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"description": "Geopolitical/chokepoint dominance implies gap-risk and headline-driven variance despite bullish bias."
},
{
"flag": "medium_reversal_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "No strong opposing mass yet, but thesis is sensitive to rapid de-escalation or demand-shock counterprints."
},
{
"flag": "thin_counterevidence_present",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "low",
"description": "A small set of low-corroboration signals point to demand/throughput softening; monitor for broadening."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish directional score remains >= +20 with no fresh (<=6h) multi-source de-escalation cluster."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.25 or rapid narrative switching occurs within consecutive 1h buckets."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "2+ independent fresh opposing signals (<=2h) accumulate that materially reduce net bullish pressure."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggers (kill-switch true) or conviction drops below 45."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 16,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 16,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"State-change computed with unknown prior; unknown_prior treated as neutral baseline => new_bullish.",
"Directional mapping: geopolitics/chokepoint/supply-disruption narratives interpreted as net bullish pressure for crude oil pricing.",
"Actual counterevidence present but thin (estimated counterevidence score ~28/100): refinery-outage/demand-throughput and macro-demand singletons; not sufficient for kill-switch.",
"Some non-crude signals present in risk/vip lanes were not force-mapped (unmapped_signal_count_estimate=3).",
"Timeseries is an additive approximation using admitted signal timestamps (trend/vip/risk published times) and decay-style carry; not derived from full per-record physics (not provided in gated input)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}