1. Snapshot
  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-03-30 07:05 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
  1. Signal Table
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude_oil-001 Brent-linked crude oil futures retain an upside (risk-premium) bias over the next 6 hours due to elevated Gulf/Hormuz security disruption narratives. 62 up accelerating 6h false 61
crude_oil B-crude_oil-002 Over the next 24 hours, dominant signals support Brent staying supported vs recent baseline unless material de-escalation appears. 58 up stable 24h false 61
crude_oil B-crude_oil-003 Downside/pullback risk rises if macro-demand stress broadens and evidence shifts from supply disruption to demand contraction within 24h. 42 down fading 24h false 61
  1. Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260330T070500Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-30T07:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Brent-linked crude oil futures retain an upside (risk-premium) bias over the next 6 hours due to elevated Gulf/Hormuz security disruption narratives dominating the freshest corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical escalation / conflict headlines clustered around Iran-US and Gulf security",
 "Maritime chokepoint risk (Strait of Hormuz) featuring prominently in recent high-heat clusters",
 "Broad multi-source reinforcement (high unique-source counts across multiple admitted trends)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Refinery outage / operational disruption signals that can reduce near-term crude runs (demand-side pressure)",
 "Macro risk-off / recession-tilted singletons (thin but present)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the dominant signal set supports Brent crude staying supported (higher vs recent baseline) unless a material de-escalation counter-narrative appears in the fresh window.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Sustained multi-trend overlap on geopolitics + chokepoints",
 "Low explicit contradiction inside admitted trends (consistency scores high; contradiction lists empty)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Demand-destruction / macro headwind narratives (currently thinner and less corroborated)",
 "Operational refinery outages reducing crude throughput (low-evidence but very recent)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Downside / pullback risk rises if macro-demand stress signals broaden and fresh evidence shifts from 'supply disruption' to 'demand contraction' within the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Thin but present macro-risk singletons (risk-off framing)",
 "Refinery outage risk can transiently reduce crude demand (runs)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Current dominant corpus remains geopolitically supply-risk weighted",
 "Authority-tier coverage still largely aligned with disruption framing"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 86,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude_oil-001",
 "B-crude_oil-002",
 "B-crude_oil-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 68,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 74,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_signals_0_6h": 8,
 "fresh_signals_6_24h": 3,
 "fresh_signals_24_72h": 0,
 "fresh_signals_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_volatility",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "Geopolitical/chokepoint dominance implies gap-risk and headline-driven variance despite bullish bias."
 },
 {
 "flag": "medium_reversal_watch",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "No strong opposing mass yet, but thesis is sensitive to rapid de-escalation or demand-shock counterprints."
 },
 {
 "flag": "thin_counterevidence_present",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "A small set of low-corroboration signals point to demand/throughput softening; monitor for broadening."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish directional score remains >= +20 with no fresh (<=6h) multi-source de-escalation cluster."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.25 or rapid narrative switching occurs within consecutive 1h buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "2+ independent fresh opposing signals (<=2h) accumulate that materially reduce net bullish pressure."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggers (kill-switch true) or conviction drops below 45."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 16,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-30T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-30T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 16,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "State-change computed with unknown prior; unknown_prior treated as neutral baseline => new_bullish.",
 "Directional mapping: geopolitics/chokepoint/supply-disruption narratives interpreted as net bullish pressure for crude oil pricing.",
 "Actual counterevidence present but thin (estimated counterevidence score ~28/100): refinery-outage/demand-throughput and macro-demand singletons; not sufficient for kill-switch.",
 "Some non-crude signals present in risk/vip lanes were not force-mapped (unmapped_signal_count_estimate=3).",
 "Timeseries is an additive approximation using admitted signal timestamps (trend/vip/risk published times) and decay-style carry; not derived from full per-record physics (not provided in gated input)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}