Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: silver
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: macro_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-29T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SI-001 | Silver futures sentiment is net supportive over the next 6–24 hours, led by precious‑metals risk‑on/safe‑haven demand proxies and investment‑flow narratives (ETF flow themes) rather than industrial‑demand datapoints. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| silver | B-SI-002 | The current silver‑positive tilt is moderately fragile because the admitted evidence mix is macro‑heavy (rates / USD / central‑bank expectation narratives) with limited direct industrial‑demand confirmation in the last 24 hours. | 62 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_20260329T150000Z_silver_6B",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver futures sentiment is net supportive over the next 6\u201324 hours, led by precious-metals risk-on/safe-haven demand proxies and investment-flow narratives (silver trust / ETF flow themes) rather than industrial-demand datapoints.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"investment_flows",
"monetary_policy",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Macro narrative can flip quickly (rate-expectation whipsaw) without explicit silver-specific counter-records in this slice."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "The current silver-positive tilt is moderately fragile because the admitted evidence mix is macro-heavy (rates / USD / central-bank expectation narratives) with limited direct industrial-demand confirmation in the last 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"usd_strength",
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If additional silver-specific flow and positioning evidence accumulates, fragility would fall."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 152,
"B": 10,
"C": 23,
"D": 170,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 1,
"fresh_6_24h": 5,
"fresh_24_72h": 2,
"stale_over_72h": 1
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "macro_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional support is materially driven by rates/USD expectation narratives; these can reverse quickly even without new silver-specific records."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "cross_asset_proxy_dependency",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Some admitted support is inferred via broader precious-metals / safe-haven proxies (e.g., gold-oriented risk narratives), increasing model interpretation risk for silver."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "single_source_vip_noise",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Multiple silver-mining VIP outliers are single-source and are down-weighted; they add noise more than directional conviction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while flow/ETF and macro-support narratives remain fresh (<24h) and no fresh opposing silver-specific evidence accumulates."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if a fresh (<=6h) opposing macro impulse appears (rates re-pricing / USD strength shock) with at least 2 independent records."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Expect higher volatility sensitivity around central-bank expectation narratives; treat any late-breaking high-authority record as potential fast invalidator."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
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},
{
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
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},
{
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"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
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"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 33,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'silver'; analysis constrained to single market.",
"Directional inference is based on macro + investment-flow narratives in the admitted corpus; limited direct industrial-demand evidence in the last-24h slice increases fragility.",
"No explicit fresh opposing (silver-bearish) evidence objects were present in the admitted set; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to macro sensitivity rather than observed contradiction spikes."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}