Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: natural_gas
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitics_whipsaw_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-29 14:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term LNG/geopolitical supply-risk narrative supportive for US natural gas futures (risk premium up-bias). 62 up accelerating 6h false 63
natural_gas B-NG-002 Over the next 24h, upside bias persists but is vulnerable to fast headline-driven mean reversion if escalation risk fades. 58 up stable 24h false 63

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natgas-2026-03-29T14:00:56Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:56Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term LNG/geopolitical supply-risk narrative remains supportive for US natural gas futures (risk premium up-bias).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "lng_export_flows",
 "pipeline_infrastructure (indirect/secondary)",
 "production_outages (indirect/secondary)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Lack of corroborated de-escalation / supply-restoration signals is not the same as counter-evidence; however, absence of hard physical disruption confirmation increases fragility.",
 "Neutral/infrastructure-continuity narratives (e.g., broader energy security/infrastructure coverage) dilute directional purity."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, upside bias persists but is vulnerable to fast headline-driven mean reversion if escalation risk fades.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "lng_export_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Event-driven risk premium can decay quickly without fresh escalation.",
 "Missing direct fundamentals (weather/storage) reduces robustness of 24h conviction."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "approximate": true,
 "A": 140,
 "B": 10,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 150,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Counts are approximate and may double-count overlapping sources across admitted trends."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 2,
 "signals_6_24h": 2,
 "signals_24_72h": 2,
 "signals_gt_72h": 2,
 "note": "Derived from trend-level published/newest timestamps; exact per-record timing not available in this workflow payload."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_geopolitics_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "detail": "Primary admitted drivers are geopolitical/LNG disruption narratives; these can reverse quickly on de-escalation headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag": "fundamentals_coverage_gap",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "detail": "Key arenas in flight plan (seasonal_weather_demand, storage_levels) have no direct admitted evidence in this run; conviction capped accordingly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "echo_concentration_in_subsignals",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "detail": "Several VIP/risk items are single-source; they were not allowed to dominate direction but increase noise/fragility."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional fresh (<=6h) multi-source LNG/shipping disruption or escalation evidence without matching counter-evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent de-escalation/supply-restoration signals inside 2\u20136h window, or a sharp drop in new disruption mentions (risk-premium decay)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially while fresh evidence remains high (headline churn)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score returns to the neutral band (|score| < 20) with thinning fresh evidence."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 45,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 40,
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
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 "velocity_score": -2,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Admitted evidence is concentrated in energy_geopolitics and LNG export/shipping disruption narratives; limited direct coverage of seasonal_weather_demand and storage_levels in this payload.",
 "No explicit counter-trend set was present (contradictions array empty); reversal_risk set to medium primarily due to event-driven headline fragility rather than observed counterevidence.",
 "state_change derived with unknown prior state; defaulted to new_bullish for first-cycle direction assignment."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}