Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: natural_gas
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitics_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-29 14:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Near-term LNG/geopolitical supply-risk narrative supportive for US natural gas futures (risk premium up-bias). | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 63 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Over the next 24h, upside bias persists but is vulnerable to fast headline-driven mean reversion if escalation risk fades. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natgas-2026-03-29T14:00:56Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:56Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term LNG/geopolitical supply-risk narrative remains supportive for US natural gas futures (risk premium up-bias).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure (indirect/secondary)",
"production_outages (indirect/secondary)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Lack of corroborated de-escalation / supply-restoration signals is not the same as counter-evidence; however, absence of hard physical disruption confirmation increases fragility.",
"Neutral/infrastructure-continuity narratives (e.g., broader energy security/infrastructure coverage) dilute directional purity."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, upside bias persists but is vulnerable to fast headline-driven mean reversion if escalation risk fades.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Event-driven risk premium can decay quickly without fresh escalation.",
"Missing direct fundamentals (weather/storage) reduces robustness of 24h conviction."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"approximate": true,
"A": 140,
"B": 10,
"C": 0,
"D": 150,
"U": 0,
"note": "Counts are approximate and may double-count overlapping sources across admitted trends."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 2,
"signals_6_24h": 2,
"signals_24_72h": 2,
"signals_gt_72h": 2,
"note": "Derived from trend-level published/newest timestamps; exact per-record timing not available in this workflow payload."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "event_driven_geopolitics_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"detail": "Primary admitted drivers are geopolitical/LNG disruption narratives; these can reverse quickly on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag": "fundamentals_coverage_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"detail": "Key arenas in flight plan (seasonal_weather_demand, storage_levels) have no direct admitted evidence in this run; conviction capped accordingly."
},
{
"flag": "echo_concentration_in_subsignals",
"severity": "low",
"market": "natural_gas",
"detail": "Several VIP/risk items are single-source; they were not allowed to dominate direction but increase noise/fragility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional fresh (<=6h) multi-source LNG/shipping disruption or escalation evidence without matching counter-evidence."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent de-escalation/supply-restoration signals inside 2\u20136h window, or a sharp drop in new disruption mentions (risk-premium decay)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially while fresh evidence remains high (headline churn)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score returns to the neutral band (|score| < 20) with thinning fresh evidence."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-29T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Admitted evidence is concentrated in energy_geopolitics and LNG export/shipping disruption narratives; limited direct coverage of seasonal_weather_demand and storage_levels in this payload.",
"No explicit counter-trend set was present (contradictions array empty); reversal_risk set to medium primarily due to event-driven headline fragility rather than observed counterevidence.",
"state_change derived with unknown prior state; defaulted to new_bullish for first-cycle direction assignment."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}