Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: natural_gas
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 0
  • top_risk_flag: input_gate_degraded_missing_workflow5B_output
  • generated_at: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Fragile
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility

+0 additional beliefs in JSON dump

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_20260329T000000Z_degraded_no5b",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 0,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 0,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "tier_a": 0,
 "tier_b": 0,
 "tier_c": 0,
 "unknown": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_24h": 0,
 "recent_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "input_gate_degraded_missing_workflow5B_output",
 "severity": "high",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "details": "No workflow5B_output.trends/vip_outliers/risk_anomalies provided; cannot admit evidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_below_min_evidence_threshold",
 "severity": "high",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "details": "min_evidence_threshold=3; admitted_evidence_count=0; direction suppressed to neutral_mixed."
 },
 {
 "flag": "freshness_confidence_low",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "details": "No timestamped evidence to build recency-weighted directional mass."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Until >=3 admitted fresh signals establish a coherent directional mass (per client lens) and reduce fragility driven by data sparsity."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If new, conflicting signals arrive within a 0\u20136h window causing rapid sentiment flips (contradiction spike)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-28T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 90,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 0,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "workflow5B_output missing: no trends/vip_outliers/risk_anomalies/aggregate_metrics to admit for natural gas.",
 "Client lens requires direction suppression when evidence is below threshold (min_evidence_threshold=3, require_directional_conviction=true, suppress_direction_if_degraded=true).",
 "State_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior with no admissible signals; do not interpret as persistence of a prior bullish/bearish thesis."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}